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Can Consumption Growth in China Keep Up As Investment Slows?

Author

Listed:
  • Mali Chivakul

    (IMF)

  • Bernhard Kassner

    (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität)

Abstract

Rebalancing away from investment to consumption has been on China’s agenda in or- der to keep up higher growth rates. This paper uses both national- and provincial-level data to empirically answer the question how a slowdown in investment could have an impact on household consumption. Our empirical results from both the national- and provincial-level data using Bayesian vector autoregressions and panel regression meth- ods suggest that investment has had a significant impact on household consumption beyond the standard household income channel. The effects are particularly strong in the post-global-financial-crisis period. Policy measures to encourage rebalancing away from investment should take the extra effect it may have on consumption beyond the impact on household income into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Mali Chivakul & Bernhard Kassner, 2018. "Can Consumption Growth in China Keep Up As Investment Slows?," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_026, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    • Handle: RePEc:cth:wpaper:gru_2018_026
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    Cited by:

    1. Iikka Korhonen, 2019. "Forty Years of Chinese Reforms: An Overview," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 349-358, September.
    2. K. Buysse & D. Essers & E. Vincent, 2018. "Can China avoid the middle-income trap?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 63-78, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reforms; Investment; Consumption; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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