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What’s Driving Investment in China?

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  • Mr. Steven A Barnett
  • Mr. R. Brooks

Abstract

Investment has grown rapidly in China in recent years, reaching more than 40 percent of GDP. Despite good progress on bank and enterprise reforms, weaknesses remain that could contribute to inefficient investment decisions. Manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate have been the drivers of fixed asset investment. Econometric analysis presented in the paper suggests that manufacturing investment is strongly correlated with firms' liquidity, largely retained earnings. Analysis of residential real estate investment shows that it is weakly correlated with real household income growth and real mortgage interest rates. A policy implication of these findings is that reducing liquidity in firms, for example by requiring state-owned enterprises to pay dividends to the government, and using monetary policy to reduce liquidity increase real interest rates, would slow investment in manufacturing and real estate.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Steven A Barnett & Mr. R. Brooks, 2006. "What’s Driving Investment in China?," IMF Working Papers 2006/265, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/265
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Lv, Bingyang & Liu, Yongzheng & Li, Yan, 2020. "Fiscal incentives, competition, and investment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Jahangir Aziz, 2008. "Deconstructing China’s and India’s Growth: The Role of Financial Policies," Working Papers id:1714, eSocialSciences.
    4. Mr. Leslie Lipschitz & Ms. Genevieve Verdier & Ms. Celine Rochon, 2008. "A Real Model of Transitional Growth and Competitiveness in China," IMF Working Papers 2008/099, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ohno, Sanae & Shimizu, Junko, 2015. "Do exchange rate arrangements and capital controls influence international capital flows and housing prices in Asia?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-18.
    6. Mylène Gaulard, 2010. "Baixa da taxa de lucro e crescimento chinês ," Post-Print halshs-01811556, HAL.
    7. Mali Chivakul & Bernhard Kassner, 2019. "Can Consumption Growth in China Keep Up as Investment Slows?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 381-412, September.
    8. He, Dong & Zhang, Wenlang, 2010. "How dependent is the Chinese economy on exports and in what sense has its growth been export-led?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 87-104, February.
    9. Gu, Tao, 2019. "Wage determination and fixed capital investment in an imperfect financial market: the case of China," MPRA Paper 95986, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Kahrl, Fredrich & Roland-Holst, David & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Past as Prologue? Understanding energy use in post-2002 China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 759-771.
    11. Tang, Ya & Xu, Jianguo & Zhang, Xun, 2017. "China's investment and rate of return on capital revisited," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 12-25.
    12. Lipschitz, Leslie & Rochon, Céline & Verdier, Geneviève, 2011. "A real model of transitional growth and competitiveness in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 267-283, August.
    13. Mr. Jahangir Aziz, 2006. "Rebalancing China’s Economy: What Does Growth Theory Tell Us?," IMF Working Papers 2006/291, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Roberts, Ivan & Rush, Anthony, 2012. "Understanding China's demand for resource imports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 566-579.
    15. Tao Gu, 2020. "The behavior of private entrepreneurs in an imperfect financial market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 349-358.
    16. Arslan Razmi, 2008. "Is the Chinese Investment- and Export-Led Growth Model Sustainable? Some Rising Concerns," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2008-09, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    17. Mr. Jahangir Aziz, 2008. "Real and Financial Sector Linkages in China and India," IMF Working Papers 2008/095, International Monetary Fund.

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