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Household debt and uncertainty: Private consumption after the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Ángel Estrada

    (Banco de España)

  • Eva Valdeolivas

    (Banco de España)

  • Javier Vallés

    (Banco de España)

  • Daniel Garrote

    (Harvard Kennedy School)

Abstract

Household debt in many advanced economies has increased significantly since the 1980s and accelerated in the years prior to the Great Recession, resulting in an aggregate reduction of saving rates in the developed economies. Some of those economies are now deleveraging, which may be affecting their recovery. We try to disentangle how these financial developments influence private consumption in a panel of OECD countries, after controlling for the traditional determinants (income, net financial and non-financial wealth, and interest rates). Consistent with the changes in the distribution of financial constraints, we find that aggregate consumption is also driven by the dynamics of housing debt accumulation and deleveraging. Precautionary savings, due to labour income uncertainty, have also influenced household decisions especially, during the 2007-2009 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Ángel Estrada & Eva Valdeolivas & Javier Vallés & Daniel Garrote, 2014. "Household debt and uncertainty: Private consumption after the Great Recession," Working Papers 1415, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1415
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/14/Fich/dt1415e.pdf
    File Function: First version, July 2014
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    2. Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine & Duca, John V & Murata, Keiko & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: Evidence from the UK, Japan and the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 7876, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Daniel Aaronson & Sumit Agarwal & Eric French, 2012. "The Spending and Debt Response to Minimum Wage Hikes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3111-3139, December.
    4. Brindusa Anghel & Sara de la Rica & Aitor Lacuesta, 2013. "Employment polarisation in Spain over the course of the 1997-2012 cycle," Working Papers 1321, Banco de España.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Maria Malmierca, 2021. "Persistence in the private debt-t -GDP ratio: evidence from 43 OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(43), pages 5018-5027, September.
    2. de Bondt, Gabe & Gieseck, Arne & Herrero, Pablo & Zekaite, Zivile, 2019. "Disaggregate income and wealth effects in the largest euro area countries," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Arnon Barak, 2017. "The private consumption function in Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2017.04b, Bank of Israel.
    4. Arnon Barak, 2018. "The Private Consumption Function In Israel," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 16(1), pages 65-103.
    5. Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores & Ruiz, Freddy, 2021. "Does Uncertainty Affect Saving Decisions of Colombian Households? Evidence on Precautionary Saving," MPRA Paper 106771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Patience Nkala & Asrat Tsegaye, 2017. "The Relationship between Household Debt and Consumption Spending in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(2), pages 243-257.
    7. Gabe Jacob de Bondt & Arne Gieseck & Zivile Zekaite, 2020. "Thick modelling income and wealth effects: a forecast application to euro area private consumption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 257-286, January.
    8. Dimitrios Sideris & Georgia Pavlou, 2021. "Disaggregate income and wealth effects on private consumption in Greece," Working Papers 293, Bank of Greece.
    9. De Andrés Mosquera, Andrés, 2017. "Los determinantes a largo plazo y su contribución a la tasa de ahorro de los hogares españoles en el período 1985-2016 || Long-term determinants and its contribution to Spanish household saving rate d," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 24(1), pages 292-339, Diciembre.
    10. Alba Lugilde & Roberto Bande & Dolores Riveiro, 2018. "Precautionary saving in Spain during the great recession: evidence from a panel of uncertainty indicators," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 1151-1179, December.
    11. Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Dées, Stéphane & Andersson, Malin & Bijsterbosch, Martin & Forster, Katrin & Zorell, Nico & Audoly, Richard & Buelens, Christian & Compeyron, Guillaume & Ferrando, Annali, 2016. "Savings and investment behaviour in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 167, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    private consumption; financial developments; precautionary savings; debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook

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