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Monetary policy, asset prices and consumption in China

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  • Koivu, Tuuli

Abstract

This paper studies the wealth channel in China. Although the wealth channel has been found to be functioning in many advanced countries, its existence is yet to be explored in most emerging economies, also in China. In order to illuminate dynamics between monetary policy, asset prices and consumption, we use the structural vector autoregression method. The findings support the view that a loosening of China's monetary policy does indeed lead to higher asset prices. Furthermore, a positive shock to residential prices increases household consumption, while the role of stock prices seems to be small from the households’ point of view. Finally, we test the existence of the wealth channel more formally to find out whether those changes in asset prices that are caused by monetary policy are significant enough to increase consumption. In summary, the wealth channel remains weak but there are some signs of it via residential prices. The results are not that different from those attained for the advanced economies, where the size of the wealth channel has been found to be limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Koivu, Tuuli, 2012. "Monetary policy, asset prices and consumption in China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 307-325.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:36:y:2012:i:2:p:307-325
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2011.07.001
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    4. Nannan Yuan & Shigeyuki Hamori & Wang Chen, 2014. "House Prices and Stock Prices: Evidence from a Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel in China," Discussion Papers 1428, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    5. Cheah, Siew Pong & Law, Siong Hook, 2017. "Roles of Housing Wealth and Financial Wealth in Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Malaysia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 51(1), pages 77-86.
    6. Zan Yang & Shuping Wu & Yanhao Shen, 2017. "Monetary Policy, House Prices, and Consumption in China: A National and Regional Study," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 23-49.
    7. I-Chun Tsai, 2017. "The housing market and excess monetary liquidity in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 599-615, September.
    8. Fatemeh Razmi & Azali Mohamed & Lee Chin & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2017. "How Does Monetary Policy Affect Economic Vulnerability to Oil Price Shock as against US Economy Shock?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 544-550.
    9. Mali Chivakul & Bernhard Kassner, 2019. "Can Consumption Growth in China Keep Up as Investment Slows?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 381-412, September.
    10. Shaofang Li, 2021. "Quality of Bank Capital, Competition, and Risk-Taking: Some International Evidence," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(12), pages 3455-3488, September.
    11. Nianzhai Ma & Weizeng Sun & Zhen Wang, 2022. "Host Identity and Consumption Behavior: Evidence from Rural–Urban Migrants in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-25, September.
    12. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2015. "Do Stock Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 14(2), pages 176-196, August.
    13. Xiaorong Zhou & Meng-Shiuh Chang & Karen Gibler, 2016. "The asymmetric wealth effects of housing market and stock market on consumption in China," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 196-216, April.
    14. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Tian, Lina, 2017. "Capital flows, money supply and property prices: The case of China," MPRA Paper 80730, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Mehmet Balcilar & Evrim Toren, 2021. "The Time-Varying Effect of Asset Prices on Turkey’s Circular Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-16, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Monetary policy; Asset prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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