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Sudden Spikes in Global Risk

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  • Bacchetta, Philippe
  • van Wincoop, Eric

Abstract

Recent episodes (October 2008, May 2010, August 2011) have witnessed huge spikes in equity price risk (implied volatility). Apart from their large size, several features characterize these risk panics. They are global phenomena, shared among a broad set of countries. There is substantial variation though in the extent to which individual countries are impacted, while the impact bears little relation to financial linkages with the epicenter of the crisis. In addition there is usually not a large shock to fundamentals that sets off these panics. We provide an explanation for these risk panic features in the context of a two-country model that allows for self-fulfilling shifts in risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2012. "Sudden Spikes in Global Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 8853, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8853
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    Cited by:

    1. Bogdan Murarasu & Alina Bobasu, 2014. "Output Spillovers from Trade and Financial Linkages in Central and Eastern European Countries: A Panel Analysis," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 6(2), pages 081-096, December.
    2. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2016. "The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 177-198, October.
    3. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor & Felix Ward, 2019. "Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 109-150, March.
    4. Cardani, Roberta & Hohberger, Stefan & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Vogel, Lukas, 2022. "Domestic versus foreign drivers of trade (im)balances: How robust is evidence from estimated DSGE models?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    5. Laura Nowzohour & Livio Stracca, 2020. "More Than A Feeling: Confidence, Uncertainty, And Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 691-726, September.
    6. Lee, Seohyun, 2017. "Three essays on uncertainty: real and financial effects of uncertainty shocks," MPRA Paper 83617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Cross‐Country Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 615-642, June.
    8. Gauvin, L. & McLoughlin, C. & Reinhardt, D., 2013. "Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets - Evidence from Capital Flows," Working papers 435, Banque de France.
    9. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Eguren Martin, Fernando & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "Foreign booms, domestic busts: The global dimension of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 58-74.
    10. Berger, Tino & Grabert, Sibylle & Kempa, Bernd, 2017. "Global macroeconomic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 42-56.
    11. Kevin Larcher & Jaebeom Kim & Youngju Kim, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks and asymmetric dynamics in Korea: a non-linear approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(6), pages 594-610, February.
    12. Malamud, Semyon & Malkhozov, Aytek, 2016. "Market Integration and Global Crashes," CEPR Discussion Papers 11468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. L. GAUVIN & C. McLOUGHLIN & D. REINHARDT, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty in advanced countries and portfolio capital flows to emerging markets," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 34, november..
    14. Nicolas Reigl, 2023. "Noise shocks and business cycle fluctuations in three major European Economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 603-657, February.
    15. Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2019. "Transmission of uncertainty shocks: Learning from heterogeneous responses on a panel of EU countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 62-83.
    16. Marek Lubiński, 2013. "Międzybankowy rynek pieniężny i zarażenie," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5-6, pages 19-41.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagion; International finance;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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