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Transmission of Sovereign Risk in the Euro Crisis

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Abstract

We assess the role of financial linkages for the transmission of sovereign risk in the Euro Crisis. Building on the narrative approach by Romer and Romer (1989), we use financial news to identify structural shocks in a VAR model of daily sovereign CDS for eleven European countries. To estimate how these shocks transmit across borders, we use data on cross-country bank exposures to sovereign debt. Our results indicate that exposure to Greek sovereign debt and debt of Greek banks constitute important transmission channels. Overall, financial linkages explain up to two thirds of transmission of sovereign debt in the Euro Crisis.

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  • Filippo Brutti & Philip Sauré, 2012. "Transmission of Sovereign Risk in the Euro Crisis," Working Papers 12.01, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    • Handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:1201
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    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

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