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Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Panel Data

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  • Smith, Simon
  • Timmermann, Allan
  • Wright, Jonathan

Abstract

We revisit time-variation in the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with breakpoints to US and European Union disaggregate data. Our approach allows us to accurately estimate both the number and timing of breaks in the Phillips curve. It further allows us to determine the existence of clusters of industries, cities, or countries whose Phillips curves display similar patterns of instability and to examine lead-lag patterns in how individual inflation series change. We find evidence of a marked flattening in the Phillips curves for US sectoral data and among EU countries, particularly poorer ones. Conversely, evidence of a flattening is weaker for MSA-level data and for the wage Phillips curve. US regional data and EU data point to a kink in the price Phillips curve which remains relatively steep when the economy is running hot.

Suggested Citation

  • Smith, Simon & Timmermann, Allan & Wright, Jonathan, 2023. "Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Panel Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 18033, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18033
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    Cited by:

    1. Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara & Wang, Yiru, 2024. "Has the Phillips Curve Flattened?," CEPR Discussion Papers 18846, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ferri, Piero & Cristini, Annalisa & Tramontana, Fabio, 2023. "Meta-models of the Phillips curve and income distribution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 215-232.
    3. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Eggertsson, Gauti, 2023. "It's Baaack: The Surge in Inflation in the 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve," CEPR Discussion Papers 18116, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; Unemployment; Panel data; Structural breaks; Bayesian analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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