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The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited: The Phillips Curve in COVID Times

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  • Richard K. Crump
  • Stefano Eusepi
  • Marc Giannoni
  • Ayşegül Şahin

Abstract

Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent increase in the natural rate of unemployment, u*ₜ, in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the inflation surge is attributed to temporary supply factors, we also find an important role for current and expected negative unemployment gaps. Through the lens of the model, the 2022–2023 disinflation was driven by the expectation that the unemployment gap will close through a progressive decline in u*ₜ and a rise in the unemployment rate. This implies that convergence to long-run price stability depends critically on expectations about labor market tightness. Using a variety of cross-sectional data sources we provide corroborating evidence of unusually tight labor market conditions, consistent with our estimated rise in u*ₜ.

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  • Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. "The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited: The Phillips Curve in COVID Times," NBER Working Papers 29785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29785
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    2. Smith, Simon & Timmermann, Allan & Wright, Jonathan, 2023. "Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Panel Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 18033, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Faberman, R. Jason & Mueller, Andreas I. & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2022. "Has the Willingness to Work Fallen during the Covid Pandemic?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Gadi Barlevy & R. Jason Faberman & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2024. "The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge Curve Shifts," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 83-106, Spring.
    5. Kakuho Furukawa & Yoshihiko Hogen & Yosuke Kido, "undated". "Labor Market of Regular Workers in Japan: A Perspective from Job Advertisement Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    6. Miguel Ampudia & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Théodore Renault, 2024. "The wage-price pass-through across sectors: evidence from the euro area," BIS Working Papers 1192, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Ángel Ubide, 2022. "The Inflation Surge of 2021–22: Scarcity of Goods and Commodities, Strong Labor Markets and Anchored Inflation Expectations," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(2), pages 93-98, March.
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    9. Hie Joo Ahn & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2024. "(Re-)Connecting Inflation and the Labor Market: A Tale of Two Curves," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-050, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Smith, Simon & Timmermann, Allan & Wright, Jonathan, 2023. "Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Panel Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 18033, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

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