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A Decomposition of the Phillips Curve’s Flattening

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Abstract

While the original papers on the inflation-unemployment relationship, i.e., the Phillips curve, studied aggregate data, a recent generation of work has moved to regional analysis. We estimate Phillips curves in the US based on regional data between 1958 and 2013, from which we can recover the national Phillips Curve. We find that the curves’ evolution over time is characterized by changing cross-region spillovers largely due to a subset of 1970s observations. We show that for these observations, regional inflation exhibits strong negative comovement with national unemployment even after controlling for own region unemployment, resulting in a negative spillover in the regional Phillips curve regression. Aggregating across regional curves, the negative spillover works to steepen the national Phillips curve. The local (regional), spillover and national Phillips curve slopes observed in the data are qualitatively consistent with a simple multi-region monetary model with endogenous monetary policy.

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  • Bill Dupor & Marie Hogan & Jingchao Li, 2024. "A Decomposition of the Phillips Curve’s Flattening," Working Papers 2025-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:99477
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2025.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Amir Sufi, 2019. "Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips Curve Dead or is It Just Hibernating?," NBER Working Papers 25792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Luca Gagliardone & Mark Gertler & Simone Lenzu & Joris Tielens, 2023. "Anatomy of the Phillips Curve: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications," NBER Working Papers 31382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Simon Smith & Allan Timmermann & Jonathan H. Wright, 2023. "Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 31153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Olivier Blanchard, 2016. "The Phillips Curve: Back to the '60s?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 31-34, May.
    6. Jonathon Hazell & Juan Herreño & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2022. "The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(3), pages 1299-1344.
    7. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2020. "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 199-255.
    8. Kumar, Anil & M. Orrenius, Pia, 2016. "A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 84-102.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    local spillover decomposition; Phillips curve;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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