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The Economic Ripple Effects of COVID-19

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  • Buera, Francisco
  • Fattal Jaef, Roberto
  • Hopenhayn, Hugo
  • Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés
  • Shin, Yongseok

Abstract

What are the effects of a temporary lockdown of the economy? Do firms' deteriorating balance sheets and labor market frictions propagate and prolong the effects? We answer these questions in a model with financial and labor market frictions. The model makes quantitative predictions about the effect of lockdowns of varying magnitude and duration on output, employment and firm dynamics. We find that the effects are not persistent if (i) workers on temporary layoff can be recalled by their previous employers without having to go through the frictional labor market and (ii) the government provides employment subsidies to firms during the lockdown. However, the effects are heterogeneous and young non-essential firms are disproportionately affected. In addition, if lockdowns lead to more permanent reallocation across industries, the recession becomes more protracted. Although the paper is motivated by the lockdowns during the Covid-19 pandemic, the framework can be readily applied to large, temporary shocks of different nature.

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  • Buera, Francisco & Fattal Jaef, Roberto & Hopenhayn, Hugo & Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés & Shin, Yongseok, 2021. "The Economic Ripple Effects of COVID-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 16071, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16071
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jaroslaw Janecki, 2021. "Business Uncertainty during the Covid-19 Pandemic: Assessment Based on the Pandemic Fear Index and Economic Surveys," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 561-570.
    3. Hall, Robert E. & Kudlyak, Marianna, 2022. "The unemployed with jobs and without jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Brotherhood, Luiz & Jerbashian, Vahagn, 2023. "Firm behavior during an epidemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    5. Katafuchi, Yuya, 2021. "Residential land price fluctuations caused by behavioral changes on work-from-home based on COVID-19," MPRA Paper 109310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Alessandro Di Nola & Leo Kaas & Haomin Wang, 2023. "Rescue policies for small businesses in the Covid-19 recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 579-603, December.
    7. Gustavo Leyva & Carlos Urrutia, 2023. "Informal Labor Markets in Times of Pandemic," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 158-185, January.
    8. Luca Portoghese & Patrizio Tirelli, 2024. "Getting ready for the next pandemic: supply- side policies to escape the health-vs-economy dilemma," DEM Working Papers Series 219, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    9. Hashemi, Hossein & Rajabi, Reza & Brashear-Alejandro, Thomas G., 2022. "COVID-19 research in management: An updated bibliometric analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 795-810.
    10. Alessandro Di Nola & Leo Kaas & Haomin Wang, 2023. "Rescue policies for small businesses in the Covid-19 recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 579-603, December.
    11. Maureen Were & Kethi Ngoka, 2022. "An assessment of the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on Kenya's trade," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-8, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Fernando Cirelli & Mark Gertler, 2022. "Economic Winners Versus Losers and the Unequal Pandemic Recession," NBER Working Papers 29713, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Hevia, Constantino & Macera, Manuel & Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés, 2022. "Covid-19 in unequal societies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    14. De La Peña, Rogelio & García, Ignacio, 2023. "Untangling crises: GFC and COVID-19 through the lens of a DSGE model," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).
    15. Cooper, Russell & Horn, Carl-Wolfram & Indraccolo, Leonardo, 2024. "Covid and productivity in Europe: A responsiveness perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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