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US Unemployment Insurance Replacement Rates During the Pandemic

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  • Peter Ganong

    (University of Chicago)

  • Pascal Noel

    (University of Chicago - Booth School of Business)

  • Joseph Vavra

    (University of Chicago - Booth School of Business)

Abstract

We study the effects of news coverage of COVID-19 by the two most widely-viewed cable news shows in the United States —Hannity and Tucker Carlson Tonight, both on Fox News — on viewers’ behavior and downstream health outcomes. Carlson warned viewers about the threat posed by COVID-19 from early February, while Hannity originally dismissed the associated risks before gradually adjusting his position starting late February. We first validate these differences in content with independent coding of show transcripts and present new survey evidence that Hannity’s viewers changed behavior in response to COVID-19 later than other Fox News viewers, while Carlson’s viewers changed behavior earlier. We then document a robust association between viewership of Hannity relative to Tucker Carlson Tonight and COVID-19 cases and deaths, both through a selection-on-observables strategy and through a novel instrumental variable approach exploiting variation in when shows are broadcast relative to local “prime-time†viewing hours. We assess effect sizes through a simple epidemiological model and provide additional evidence that misinformation is an important mechanism driving the observed effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Ganong & Pascal Noel & Joseph Vavra, 2020. "US Unemployment Insurance Replacement Rates During the Pandemic," Working Papers 2020-62, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2020-62
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    File URL: https://repec.bfi.uchicago.edu/RePEc/pdfs/BFI_WP_202062.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marianne P. Bitler & Hilary W. Hoynes & Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, 2020. "The Social Safety Net in the Wake of COVID-19," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(2 (Summer), pages 119-158.
    2. Natalie Cox & Peter Ganong & Pascal Noel & Joseph Vavra & Arlene Wong & Diana Farrell & Fiona Greig & Erica Deadman, 2020. "Initial Impacts of the Pandemic on Consumer Behavior: Evidence from Linked Income, Spending, and Savings Data," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(2 (Summer), pages 35-82.
    3. Tomaz Cajner & Andrew Figura & Brendan M. Price & David Ratner & Alison E. Weingarden, 2020. "Reconciling Unemployment Claims with Job Losses in the First Months of the COVID-19 Crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-055, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Corina Boar & Simon Mongey, 2020. "Dynamic Trade-offs and Labor Supply Under the CARES Act," NBER Working Papers 27727, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2020. "COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(2 (Summer), pages 329-383.
    6. Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, 2020. "Reservation Benefits: Assessing job acceptance impacts of increased UI payments," Working Paper Series 2020-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Scott, Dana & Finamor, Lucas, 2020. "Employment Effects of Unemployment Insurance Generosity During the Pandemic," MPRA Paper 102390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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