IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/lajcba/v4y2023i2s2666143823000121.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Untangling crises: GFC and COVID-19 through the lens of a DSGE model

Author

Listed:
  • De La Peña, Rogelio
  • García, Ignacio

Abstract

In this paper, we aim to compare the anatomy of the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in the context of an emerging market economy. To this end, we develop a small open economy DSGE model with the Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist financial accelerator that features financial frictions and monopolistic competition. Then, we estimate this model to explore and compare both crises in the Mexican business cycle. The decomposition obtained with the model shows that: (i) the financial shocks were the main source of contraction of the output gap (around 49.0%) in the GFC; (ii) the dynamic of the GDP had been severely affected by the demand shock (around 45.1%), the financial shocks (32.2%), and the productivity shock (22.3%) in the COVID-19 pandemic. The results suggest that the main forces of the recent contraction in economic activity in Mexico were larger in absolute terms and more diverse than those observed during the GFC. This analysis illustrates the differences between the two great crises and it evaluates the policy response to each.

Suggested Citation

  • De La Peña, Rogelio & García, Ignacio, 2023. "Untangling crises: GFC and COVID-19 through the lens of a DSGE model," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lajcba:v:4:y:2023:i:2:s2666143823000121
    DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2023.100091
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666143823000121
    Download Restriction: Gold Open Access
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.latcb.2023.100091?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    2. Ramos-Francia, Manuel & Torres, Alberto, 2008. "Inflation dynamics in Mexico: A characterization using the New Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 274-289, December.
    3. Matteo Iacoviello, 2015. "Financial Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 140-164, January.
    4. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    6. Timothy Kehoe & Felipe Meza, 2011. "Catch-up Growth Followed by Stagnation: Mexico 1950–2008," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 48(2), pages 227-268.
    7. Calderon,Cesar & Kubota,Megumi, 2021. "Exploring the Growth Effects of COVID-19 across Developing Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9889, The World Bank.
    8. Justiniano, Alejandro & Preston, Bruce, 2010. "Can structural small open-economy models account for the influence of foreign disturbances?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 61-74, May.
    9. Haroon Mumtaz & Saverio Simonelli & Paolo Surico, 2011. "International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: a Historical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 176-198, January.
    10. Merola, Rossana, 2015. "The role of financial frictions during the crisis: An estimated DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 70-82.
    11. Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
    12. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open‐economy model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 93-128, January.
    13. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    14. Ginters Buss, 2014. "Financial Frictions in a DSGE Model for Latvia," Working Papers 2014/02, Latvijas Banka.
    15. Gustavo Leyva & Carlos Urrutia, 2023. "Informal Labor Markets in Times of Pandemic," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 158-185, January.
    16. Edward P. Herbst & Frank Schorfheide, 2016. "Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10612.
    17. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2007. "Modeling great depressions: the depression in Finland in the 1990s," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 31(Nov), pages 16-44.
    18. Timothy J. Kehoe & Felipe Meza, 2011. "Catch-up Growth Followed by Stagnation: Mexico, 1950-2010," NBER Working Papers 17700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Christiano, Lawrence & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2010. "Financial factors in economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series 1192, European Central Bank.
    20. Alberola, Enrique & Urrutia, Carlos, 2020. "Does informality facilitate inflation stability?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    21. Ms. Valerie Cerra & Ms. Mai Hakamada & Mr. Ruy Lama, 2021. "Financial Crises, Investment Slumps, and Slow Recoveries," IMF Working Papers 2021/170, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Queralto, Albert, 2012. "Financial crises, bank risk exposure and government financial policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 17-34.
    23. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "The World Is Not Enough! Small Open Economies and Regional Dependence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 118(1), pages 168-195, January.
    24. Buera, Francisco & Fattal Jaef, Roberto & Hopenhayn, Hugo & Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés & Shin, Yongseok, 2021. "The Economic Ripple Effects of COVID-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 16071, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
    26. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    27. Nuguer, Victoria & Finkelstein-Shapiro, Alan, 2022. "Labor Market and Macroeconomic Dynamics in Latin America Amid COVID: The Role of Digital Adoption Policies," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12232, Inter-American Development Bank.
    28. Asli Leblebicioglu & Kolver Hernandez, 2012. "The Transmission of US Shocks to Emerging Markets," 2012 Meeting Papers 316, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    29. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Markus Kirchner & Julio Carrillo & Diego Rodríguez & Fernando Perez & Rocío Gondo & Carlos Montoro & Roberto Chang, 2017. "Financial and real shocks and the effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies in Latin American countries," BIS Working Papers 668, Bank for International Settlements.
    30. Barbara Rudolf & Mathias Zurlinden, 2014. "A compact open economy DSGE model for Switzerland," Economic Studies 2014-08, Swiss National Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mendicino, Caterina & Zhang, Yahong, 2018. "Risk shocks in a small open economy: Business cycle dynamics in Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 391-409.
    2. Paul Ho & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Felipe Schwartzman, 2022. "Multilateral Comovement in a New Keynesian World: A Little Trade Goes a Long Way," Working Paper 22-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    3. Houssa, Romain & Mohimont, Jolan & Otrok, Christopher, 2023. "Commodity exports, financial frictions, and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    4. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi.
    5. Drago Bergholt, 2015. "Foreign Shocks," Working Papers No 11/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    6. Drago Bergholt, 2014. "Foreign shocks in an estimated multi-sector model," Working Papers No 4/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    7. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2019. "A model for international spillovers to emerging markets," Working Paper Research 370, National Bank of Belgium.
    8. McKnight, Stephen & Mihailov, Alexander & Pompa Rangel, Antonio, 2020. "What do Latin American inflation targeters care about? A comparative Bayesian estimation of central bank preferences," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    9. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2016. "Fiscal consolidation under imperfect credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 108-141.
    10. De Grauwe, Paul & Gerba, Eddie, 2018. "The role of cognitive limitations and heterogeneous expectations for aggregate production and credit cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 206-236.
    11. Blattner Tobias S. & Swarbrick Jonathan M., 2021. "Monetary Policy and Cross-Border Interbank Market Fragmentation: Lessons from the Crisis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 323-368, January.
    12. Accolley, Delali, 2018. "Accounting for Busines Cycles in Canada: II. The Role of Money," MPRA Paper 85481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Yasuo Hirose, 2008. "Equilibrium Indeterminacy and Asset Price Fluctuation in Japan: A Bayesian Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 967-999, August.
    14. Alpanda, Sami & Aysun, Uluc, 2014. "International transmission of financial shocks in an estimated DSGE model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 21-55.
    15. Lindé, J. & Smets, F. & Wouters, R., 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks’ Macro Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2185-2262, Elsevier.
    16. Hur, Joonyoung & Lartey, Emmanuel K.K., 2016. "Financial openness, the financial accelerator and sectoral dynamics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 277-290.
    17. Barbara Rudolf & Mathias Zurlinden, 2014. "A compact open economy DSGE model for Switzerland," Economic Studies 2014-08, Swiss National Bank.
    18. Soltani , Sedigheh & Falihi , Nemat & Mehrabiyan , Azadeh & Amiri , Hossein, 2021. "Investigating the Effects of Monetary and Financial Shocks on the Key Macroeconomic Variables, Focusing on the Intermediary Role of Banks Using DSGE Models," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 16(4), pages 477-500, December.
    19. Zhang, Yahong, 2018. "Financial factors and labor market fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 24-44.
    20. Van Nguyen, Phuong, 2020. "The Vietnamese business cycle in an estimated small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model," Dynare Working Papers 56, CEPREMAP.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; GFC; Bayasian estimation; Financial frictions; Business cycle; DSGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:lajcba:v:4:y:2023:i:2:s2666143823000121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/latin-american-journal-of-central-banking .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.