IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pubeco/v238y2024ics0047272724001348.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Softening the blow: Job retention schemes in the pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Mohimont, Jolan
  • de Sola Perea, Maite
  • Zachary, Marie-Denise

Abstract

We evaluate the welfare effects of the temporary job retention schemes (JRS) implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in a DSGE model with incomplete insurance and heterogeneous agents calibrated to the euro area. JRS have large favorable welfare effects and benefit all households when they are well targeted at potentially viable jobs at risk of being lost. These gains are particularly strong for liquid-asset-poor households, especially for those that are also unemployed or on furlough. The job protection component of JRS explains almost all the welfare gains they deliver, while their high level of generosity plays a minor role and has ambiguous net aggregate welfare effects. We also discuss the conditions that make JRS valuable and show that they can cause a decrease in welfare when they subsidize too many safe jobs; when they are targeted at non-viable jobs that will inevitably be lost once schemes end; and when implemented in economies where labor market frictions are low.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohimont, Jolan & de Sola Perea, Maite & Zachary, Marie-Denise, 2024. "Softening the blow: Job retention schemes in the pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:238:y:2024:i:c:s0047272724001348
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105198
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272724001348
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105198?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Russell Cooper, 2017. "The Employment and Output Effects of Short-Time Work in Germany," 2017 Meeting Papers 613, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2010. "Labor Markets and Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-30, April.
    3. Itamar Drechsler & Alexi Savov & Philipp Schnabl, 2017. "The Deposits Channel of Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1819-1876.
    4. Alexander Bick & Adam Blandin, 2023. "Employer Reallocation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Validation and Application of a Do-It-Yourself CPS," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 58-76, July.
    5. Florin Bilbiie & Xavier Ragot, 2021. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Liquidity with Heterogeneous Households," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 71-95, July.
    6. Bilbiie, Florin O., 2008. "Limited asset markets participation, monetary policy and (inverted) aggregate demand logic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 162-196, May.
    7. Anmol Bhandari & David Evans & Mikhail Golosov & Thomas J. Sargent, 2021. "Inequality, Business Cycles, and Monetary‐Fiscal Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2559-2599, November.
    8. Rishabh Aggarwal & Adrien Auclert & Matthew Rognlie & Ludwig Straub, 2023. "Excess Savings and Twin Deficits: The Transmission of Fiscal Stimulus in Open Economies," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 325-412.
    9. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of lockdown policies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    10. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2006. "SIGMA: A New Open Economy Model for Policy Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    11. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    12. J.E. Boscá & R. Doménech & J. Ferri & J.R. García & C. Ulloa, 2021. "The stabilizing effects of economic policies in Spain in times of COVID-19," Applied Economic Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 29(85), pages 4-20, January.
    13. Chris Martin & Magdalyn Okolo, 2022. "Modelling the Differing Impacts of Covid‐19 in the UK Labour Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 994-1017, October.
    14. Forsythe, Eliza & Kahn, Lisa B. & Lange, Fabian & Wiczer, David, 2022. "Where have all the workers gone? Recalls, retirements, and reallocation in the COVID recovery," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    15. Balleer, Almut & Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2016. "Does short-time work save jobs? A business cycle analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 99-122.
    16. Faia, Ester & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2013. "Fiscal stimulus and labor market policies in Europe," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 483-499.
    17. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2005. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-183.
    18. Hall, Robert E. & Kudlyak, Marianna, 2022. "The unemployed with jobs and without jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Mark Gertler & Luca Sala & Antonella Trigari, 2008. "An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1713-1764, December.
    20. Krause, Michael U. & Uhlig, Harald, 2012. "Transitions in the German labor market: Structure and crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 64-79.
    21. Krause, Michael U. & Lubik, Thomas A., 2007. "The (ir)relevance of real wage rigidity in the New Keynesian model with search frictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 706-727, April.
    22. Robert Kollmann, 2021. "Effects of Covid-19 on Euro area GDP and inflation: demand vs. supply disturbances," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 475-492, July.
    23. Edouard Challe & Julien Matheron & Xavier Ragot & Juan F. Rubio‐Ramirez, 2017. "Precautionary saving and aggregate demand," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(2), pages 435-478, July.
    24. Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S," NBER Working Papers 27794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Birinci, Serdar & Karahan, Fatih & Mercan, Yusuf & See, Kurt, 2021. "Labor market policies during an epidemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    26. Mark Gertler & Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Unemployment Fluctuations with Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(1), pages 38-86, February.
    27. Roland Straub & Günter Coenen, 2005. "Non-Ricardian Households and Fiscal Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 102, Society for Computational Economics.
    28. Florin Bilbiie & Xavier Ragot, 2021. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Liquidity with Heterogeneous Households," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 71-95, July.
    29. Luiz Brotherhood & Philipp Kircher & Cezar Santos & Michèle Tertilt, 2020. "An Economic Model of the Covid-19 Epidemic: The Importance of Testing and Age-Specific Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 8316, CESifo.
    30. Garcia, Carlos J. & Restrepo, Jorge E. & Tanner, Evan, 2011. "Fiscal rules in a volatile world: A welfare-based approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 649-676, July.
    31. Mohimont, Jolan, 2022. "Welfare effects of business cycles and monetary policies in a small open emerging economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    32. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    33. Bradley, Jake & Ruggieri, Alessandro & Spencer, Adam Hal, 2021. "Twin Peaks: Covid-19 and the labor market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    34. Abbott, Brant & Phan, Nam Van, 2023. "Should wages be subsidized in a pandemic?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(6), pages 1549-1580, September.
    35. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 120-125, May.
    36. Edouard Challe, 2020. "Uninsured Unemployment Risk and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Zero-Liquidity Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 241-283, April.
    37. Britta Gehrke & Brigitte Hochmuth, 2021. "Counteracting Unemployment in Crises: Non‐Linear Effects of Short‐Time Work Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(1), pages 144-183, January.
    38. Dossche, Maarten & Krustev, Georgi & Zlatanos, Stylianos, 2021. "COVID-19 and the increase in household savings: an update," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 5.
    39. Brinca, Pedro & Duarte, Joao B. & Faria-e-Castro, Miguel, 2021. "Measuring labor supply and demand shocks during COVID-19," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    40. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/32r3ebde539odb82dkmep529vf is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    42. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    43. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, 2018. "Wealth and Volatility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2173-2213.
    44. Meriküll, Jaanika & Paulus, Alari, 2023. "The impact of the Covid-19 job retention support on employment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    45. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    46. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2023. "Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 34-59.
    47. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    48. W. Raphael Lam & Alexandra Solovyeva, 2023. "How Effective were Job-Retention Schemes during the COVID-19 Pandemic? A Microsimulation Approach for European Countries," IMF Working Papers 2023/003, International Monetary Fund.
    49. repec:imf:imfdps:2022/004 is not listed on IDEAS
    50. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5e33qpbdeh9pgbbfkkp2ddbtam is not listed on IDEAS
    51. Bennedsen, Morten & Larsen, Birthe & Schmutte, Ian M. & Scur, Daniela, 2023. "The effect of preserving job matches during a crisis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    52. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2ju03cb3kc9a3986bsibii70hd is not listed on IDEAS
    53. Giulia Giupponi & Camille Landais & Alice Lapeyre, 2022. "Should We Insure Workers or Jobs during Recessions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 29-54, Spring.
    54. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    55. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante, 2018. "Microeconomic Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Shocks," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 167-194, Summer.
    56. Dengler, Thomas & Gehrke, Britta, 2021. "Short-Time Work and Precautionary Savings," IZA Discussion Papers 14329, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    57. Eswar Prasad & Boyang Zhang, 2015. "Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Working Papers 21471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    58. Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Mai Dao, 2021. "The Effectiveness of Job-Retention Schemes: COVID-19 Evidence From the German States," IMF Working Papers 2021/242, International Monetary Fund.
    59. Thomas, Carlos, 2008. "Search and matching frictions and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 936-956, July.
    60. Christoph Görtz & Danny McGowan & Mallory Yeromonahos, 2023. "Furlough and Household Financial Distress during the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(6), pages 1157-1184, December.
    61. Cooley, Thomas F. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 1999. "A neoclassical model of the Phillips curve relation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 165-193, October.
    62. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
    63. Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michèle, 2020. "An economic model of the Covid-19 epidemic: The importance of testing and age-specific policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 14695, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    64. Faria-e-Castro, Miguel, 2021. "Fiscal policy during a pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    65. Guido Ascari & Andrea Colciago & Lorenza Rossi, 2017. "Limited Asset Market Participation, Sticky Wages, And Monetary Policy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 878-897, April.
    66. Botelho, Vasco & Consolo, Agostino & Da Silva, António Dias, 2020. "A preliminary assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the euro area labour market," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 5.
    67. Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michèle, 2020. "An economic model of the Covid-19 epidemic: The importance of testing and age-specific policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 14695, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    68. Monica Costa Dias & Robert Joyce & Fabien Postel‐Vinay & Xiaowei Xu, 2020. "The Challenges for Labour Market Policy during the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 371-382, June.
    69. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Employment Fluctuations with Equilibrium Wage Stickiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 50-65, March.
    70. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2ju03cb3kc9a3986bsibii70hd is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohimont, Jolan, 2022. "Welfare effects of business cycles and monetary policies in a small open emerging economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    2. Dengler, Thomas & Gehrke, Britta, 2021. "Short-Time Work and Precautionary Savings," IZA Discussion Papers 14329, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Hinterlang, Natascha & Moyen, Stephane & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2023. "Gauging the effects of the German COVID-19 fiscal stimulus package," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    4. Gregory De Walque & Olivier Pierrard & Henri Sneessens & Raf Wouters, 2009. "Sequential Bargaining in a Neo-Keynesian Model with Frictional Unemployment and Staggered Wage Negotiations," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 95-96, pages 223-250.
    5. Dengler, Thomas & Gehrke, Britta & Zessner-Spitzenberg, Leopold, 2024. "Short-Time Work and Precautionary Savings," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 02/2024, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    6. Christoffel, Kai & Kuester, Keith & Linzert, Tobias, 2009. "The role of labor markets for euro area monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 908-936, November.
    7. Federico Ravenna & Carl E. Walsh, 2011. "Welfare-Based Optimal Monetary Policy with Unemployment and Sticky Prices: A Linear-Quadratic Framework," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 130-162, April.
    8. Di Pace, Federico & Villa, Stefania, 2016. "Factor complementarity and labour market dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 70-112.
    9. Moon, Weh-Sol, 2011. "Business cycle with nominal contracts and search frictions," MPRA Paper 31716, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Carlos Thomas, 2011. "Search Frictions, Real Rigidities, and Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(6), pages 1131-1164, September.
    11. Moon, Weh-Sol, 2018. "The Business Cycle With Nominal Contracts And Search Frictions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 307-330, March.
    12. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2022. "Inequality in Life and Death," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 68-104, March.
    13. Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S," NBER Working Papers 27794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Beqiraj, Elton & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2023. "Subsidizing new jobs in the Euro-zone periphery," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 380-401.
    15. Acedański, Jan, 2021. "Optimal lockdown policy during the election period," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 102-117.
    16. Federico Di Pace & Matthias Hertweck, 2019. "Labor Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 274-304, April.
    17. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2010. "Monetary persistence and the labor market: A new perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 968-983, May.
    18. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2012. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 329-360.
    19. Imen Ben Mohamed & Marine Salès, 2015. "Credit imperfections, labor market frictions and unemployment: a DSGE approach," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01082491, HAL.
    20. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Job retention schemes; Furlough; Household inequality; Idiosyncratic risks; Labor markets; Welfare cost; DSGE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:238:y:2024:i:c:s0047272724001348. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505578 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.