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Growth expectations and the dynamics of firm entry

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  • Enisse Kharroubi

Abstract

How do aggregate conditions affect the dynamics of firm entry? Do recessions force more firms out, allowing for more firms to enter subsequently? Or does this process require other circumstances to thrive? I look into these questions using sectoral data on firm entry and exit for the main economies of the Euro Area over 2009-2019. My main finding is that expected, rather than current, GDP growth shapes the dynamics of firm entry. Specifically, I find that entry increases with past exits at the sector-level, but only when aggregate GDP growth is forecasted to be strong. Also, with strong growth forecasts, past entry developments weight less on the subsequent sectoral entry dynamics. Periods of low entry and high exit, can therefore be followed by strong entry subsequently, when the economy is expected to grow strongly. These findings are robust to the inclusion of several controls. This includes the quality of insolvency proceedings, firms' ability to obtain credit or the presence of barriers to entry. Finally, I show that expectations of private and public investment drive the impact of growth expectations on the dynamics of firm entry.

Suggested Citation

  • Enisse Kharroubi, 2022. "Growth expectations and the dynamics of firm entry," BIS Working Papers 1036, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1036
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    firm entry; exit; growth expectations; private and public investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups

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