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Insolvency and debt overhang following the COVID-19 outbreak: Assessment of risks and policy responses

Author

Listed:
  • Lilas Demmou
  • Sara Calligaris
  • Guido Franco
  • Dennis Dlugosch
  • Müge Adalet McGowan
  • Sahra Sakha

Abstract

This paper investigates the likelihood of corporate insolvency and the potential implications of debt overhang of non-financial corporations induced by economic shock associated with the outbreak of COVID-19. Based on simple accounting models, it evaluates the extent to which firms deplete their equity buffers and increase their leverage ratios in the course of the COVID-19 crisis. Next, relying on regression analysis and looking at the historical relationship between firms’ leverage and investment, it examines the potential impact of higher debt levels on investment during the recovery. Against this background, the discussion outlines a number of policy options to flatten the curve of crisis-related insolvencies, which could potentially affect otherwise viable firms, and to lessen the risk of debt-overhang, which could slow down the speed of recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Lilas Demmou & Sara Calligaris & Guido Franco & Dennis Dlugosch & Müge Adalet McGowan & Sahra Sakha, 2021. "Insolvency and debt overhang following the COVID-19 outbreak: Assessment of risks and policy responses," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1651, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1651-en
    DOI: 10.1787/747a8226-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Oliver Takawira & John W. Muteba Mwamba, 2022. "Sovereign Credit Ratings Analysis Using the Logistic Regression Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-24, March.
    2. Harasztosi, Péter & Maurin, Laurent & Pál, Rozália & Revoltella, Debora & van der Wielen, Wouter, 2022. "Firm-level policy support during the crisis: So far, so good?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 30-48.
    3. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Wilhelm, Paulo Victor Berri & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2022. "The role of non-critical business and telework propensity in international stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Camilo Gómez & Daniela Rodríguez-Novoa, 2024. "Firm Support Measures, Credit Payment Behavior, and Credit Risk," Borradores de Economia 1277, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Hodbod, Alexander & Hommes, Cars & Huber, Stefanie J. & Salle, Isabelle, 2021. "The COVID-19 consumption game-changer: Evidence from a large-scale multi-country survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Stefano Costa & Federico Sallusti & Claudio Vicarelli & Davide Zurlo, 2021. "Italian firms in times of troubles: Covid-19 pandemic as a test of structural solidity," LEM Papers Series 2021/47, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Altavilla, Carlo & Ellul, Andrew & Pagano, Marco & Polo, Andrea & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "Loan guarantees, bank lending and credit risk reallocation," CFS Working Paper Series 672, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    8. M. Ayhan Kose & Peter Nagle & Franziska Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2021. "What has been the impact of COVID-19 on debt? Turning a wave into a tsunami," CAMA Working Papers 2021-99, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Costa, Stefano & Sallusti, Federico & Vicarelli, Claudio & Zurlo, Davide, 2022. "Firms’ solidity before an exogenous shock: Covid-19 pandemic in Italy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 946-961.
    10. Lalinsky, Tibor & Pál, Rozália, 2021. "Efficiency and effectiveness of the COVID-19 government support: Evidence from firm-level data," EIB Working Papers 2021/06, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    11. Doerr, S. & Erdem, M. & Franco, G. & Gambacorta, L. & Illes, A., 2021. "Technological capacity and firms’ recovery from Covid-19," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    12. Frankovic, Ivan & Etzel, Tobias & Falter, Alexander & Gross, Christian & Ohls, Jana & Strobel, Lena & Wilke, Hannes, 2023. "Climate transition risk stress test for the German financial system," Technical Papers 04/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Ángel de la Fuente & Benito Arruñada & Nuria Bermejo & Olga Cerqueira & Marta Cervera Martínez & José M. Fernández Seijo & Marta Flores Segura & Francisco Garcimartin & Stefan F. van Hemmen & Jordi Ma, 2021. "¿Cómo ayudar a las empresas en la crisis del Covid?," Policy Papers 2021-05, FEDEA.
    14. Stef, Nicolae & Bissieux, Jean-Joachim, 2022. "Resolution of corporate insolvency during COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence from France," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    15. Florian Eckert & Heiner Mikosch, 2022. "Firm bankruptcies and start-up activity in Switzerland during the COVID-19 crisis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-25, December.
    16. Archanskaia, Elizaveta & Canton, Erik & Hobza, Alexandr & Nikolov, Plamen & Simons, Wouter, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of COVID-19: A novel approach to quantifying financial distress across industries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    17. Martin, Philippe & Cros, Mathieu & Epaulard, Anne, 2021. "Will Schumpeter Catch Covid-19?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Benito Arruñada & Ángel de la Fuente & Marta Cervera Martínez & Marta Flores Segura & Jordi Maristany Rivero, 2021. "Solvencia empresarial y derecho concursal: algunas reflexiones a la luz del Covid," Policy Papers 2021-04, FEDEA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; debt; equity; insolvency; investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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