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When Are Stabilizations Delayed? Alesina-Drazen Revisited

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  • César Martinelli
  • Raúl Escorza

Abstract

In an influential article, Alesina and Drazen (1991) model delay of stabilization as the result of a struggle between political groups supporting reform plans with different distributional implications. In this paper we show that ex ante asymmetries in the costs of delay for the groups will reduce the probability of conflict and will lead to a shorter expected delay. Accurate common information about the cost of delay may lead to no delay at all. In an asymmetric conflict, a wider divergence in the distributional implications of reform will reduce the probability of conflict but will lead to a longer expected delay.
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  • César Martinelli & Raúl Escorza, 2005. "When Are Stabilizations Delayed? Alesina-Drazen Revisited," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000667, UCLA Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cla:levrem:122247000000000667
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    Cited by:

    1. Maxime Menuet & Petros G. Sekeris, 2021. "Overconfidence and conflict," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(4), pages 1483-1499, October.
    2. Maxime Menuet, 2020. "Is a Long War Desirable? Optimal Debt Concessions in Attrition Warfare," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 139, pages 105-130.
    3. Andréasson, Hannes & Elert, Niklas & Karlson, Nils, 2013. "Does Social Cohesion Really Promote Reforms?," Ratio Working Papers 211, The Ratio Institute.
    4. Peter Huber & Thomas Leoni & Hans Pitlik, 2013. "Reforming Welfare States. WWWforEurope Deliverable No. 1," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47022, March.
    5. Marco Vega & César Martinelli, 2018. "The Monetary and Fiscal History of Peru, 1960-2017: Radical Policy Experiments, Inflation and Stabilization," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2018-468, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    6. Stijn Goeminne & Benny Geys & Carine Smolders, 2008. "Political fragmentation and projected tax revenues: evidence from Flemish municipalities," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 15(3), pages 297-315, June.
    7. Maxime MENUET, 2016. "Does Overconfidence Drag Out War?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2394, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    8. Kentaro Katayama, 2008. "Delay in Fiscal Reform," Microeconomics Working Papers 23075, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    9. Grier, Kevin & Lin, Shu, 2009. "Speculative attacks and defenses as wars of attrition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 540-546, December.
    10. Hannes Andréasson & Niklas Elert & Nils Karlson, 2013. "Does Social Cohesion Really Promote Reforms? WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 33," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46919, March.
    11. Paulo Júlio, 2011. "Public Debt Stabilization: Redistributive Delays Versus Preemptive Anticipations," GEE Papers 0045, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Dec 2011.

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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