IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/6793.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary Policy and the Well-Being of the Poor

Author

Listed:
  • Christina D. Romer
  • David H. Romer

Abstract

This paper investigates monetary policy's influence on poverty and inequality in both the short run and the long run. We find that the short-run and long-run relationships go in opposite directions. The time-series evidence from the United States shows that a cyclical boom created by expansionary monetary policy is associated with improved conditions for the poor in the short run. The cross-section evidence from a large sample of countries, however, shows that low inflation and stable aggregate demand growth are associated with improved well-being of the poor in the long run. Both the short-run and long-run relationships are quantitatively large, statistically significant, and robust. But because the cyclical effects of monetary policy are inherently temporary, we conclude that monetary policy that aims at low inflation and stable aggregate demand is the most likely to permanently improve conditions for the poor.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Well-Being of the Poor," NBER Working Papers 6793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6793
    Note: ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w6793.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Deininger, Klaus & Squire, Lyn, 1996. "A New Data Set Measuring Income Inequality," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(3), pages 565-591, September.
    2. Guy Debelle & Douglas Laxton, 1997. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 249-282, June.
    3. Cukierman, Alex & Kalaitzidakis, Pantelis & Summers, Lawrence H. & Webb, Steven B., 1993. "Central bank independence, growth, investment, and real rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 95-140, December.
    4. Robert J. Barro, 1996. "Inflation and growth," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 78(May), pages 153-169.
    5. Robert J. Shiller, 1997. "Public Resistance to Indexation: A Puzzle," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 159-228.
    6. Rebecca M. Blank & Alan S. Blinder, 1985. "Macroeconomics, Income Distribution, and Poverty," NBER Working Papers 1567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    8. P. Frevert, 1971. "Note," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 38(2), pages 269-270.
    9. Blinder, Alan S & Esaki, Howard Y, 1978. "Macroeconomic Activity and Income Distribution in the Postwar United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(4), pages 604-609, November.
    10. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Peter B. Clark & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetry in the U.S. Output-Inflation Nexus: Issues and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 1995/076, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Metcalf, Charles E, 1969. "The Size Distribution of Personal Income during the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(4), pages 657-668, Part I Se.
    12. W. H. Locke Anderson, 1964. "Trickling Down: The Relationship Between Economic Growth and the Extent of Poverty Among American Families," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 78(4), pages 511-524.
    13. Lewis J. Perl & Loren M. Solnick, 1971. "A Note on "Trickling Down"," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 85(1), pages 171-178.
    14. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Social Conflict and Populist Policies in Latin America," NBER Working Papers 2897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Li, Hongyi & Squire, Lyn & Zou, Heng-fu, 1998. "Explaining International and Intertemporal Variations in Income Inequality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(446), pages 26-43, January.
    16. Rebecca M. Blank & David Card, 1993. "Poverty, Income Distribution, and Growth: Are They Still Connected," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2), pages 285-340.
    17. Peter Clark & Douglas Laxton & David Rose, 1996. "Asymmetry in the U.S. Output-Inflation Nexus," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 216-251, March.
    18. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
    19. David M. Cutler & Lawrence F. Katz, 1991. "Macroeconomic Performance and the Disadvantaged," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 1-74.
    20. Castaneda, Ana & Diaz-Gimenez, Javier & Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor, 1998. "Exploring the income distribution business cycle dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 93-130, June.
    21. Al-Marhubi, Fahim, 1997. "A note on the link between income inequality and inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 317-319, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manoel BITTENCOURT, 2009. "Macroeconomic Performance And Inequality: Brazil, 1983–94," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 47(1), pages 30-52, March.
    2. Lídia Farré & Francis Vella, 2008. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Distribution of Income in Spain," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 22(3), pages 383-410, September.
    3. Markus Jäntti & Stephen Jenkins, 2010. "The impact of macroeconomic conditions on income inequality," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 8(2), pages 221-240, June.
    4. Gustavo A. Marrero & Juan G. Rodriguez, 2012. "Macroeconomic determinants of inequality of opportunity and effort in the US: 1970-2009," Working Papers 249, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    5. Zyblock, Miles & Lin, Zhengxi & Zhengxi, Lin, 1997. "Trickling Down or Fizzling Out? Economic Performance, Transfers, Inequality and Low Income," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 1997110e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    6. Luis Ayala & Olga Cantó & Juan G. Rodríguez, 2017. "Poverty and the business cycle: A regional panel data analysis for Spain using alternative measures of unemployment," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 15(1), pages 47-73, March.
    7. R. D. Plotnick & E. Smolensky & E. Evenhouse & S. Reilly, "undated". "The Twentieth Century Record of Inequality and Poverty in the United States," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1166-98, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    8. Lonnie K. Stevans & David N. Sessions, 2005. "The Relationship Between Poverty, Economic Growth, and Inequality Revisited," GE, Growth, Math methods 0502002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Luis Ayala & Olga Cantó & Juan G. Rodríguez, 2011. "Poverty and the business cycle: The role of the intra-household distribution of unemployment," Working Papers 222, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    10. Bruce D. Meyer & James X. Sullivan, 2011. "Consumption and Income Poverty Over the Business Cycle," Research in Labor Economics, in: Who Loses in the Downturn? Economic Crisis, Employment and Income Distribution, pages 51-82, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    11. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    12. Kevin S. Nell, 2000. "Is Low Inflation a Precondition for Faster Growth? The Case of South Africa," Studies in Economics 0011, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    13. Patrizio Pagano, 2004. "An empirical investigation of the relationship between inequality and growth," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 536, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Vinayagathasan, Thanabalasingam, 2013. "Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-41.
    15. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    16. Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Lin, Shu-Chin, 2023. "Income inequality, inflation and financial development," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 468-487.
    17. Bittencourt, Manoel, 2011. "Inflation and financial development: Evidence from Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 91-99.
    18. FA Al‐Marhubi, 2000. "Income inequality and inflation: the cross‐country evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(4), pages 428-439, October.
    19. Evers, Michael & Niemann, Stefan & Schiffbauer, Marc, 2020. "Inflation, liquidity and innovation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    20. Manoel Bittencourt, 2007. "Macroeconomic Performance and Inequality: Brazil 1983-1994," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 163, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6793. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.