IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_4126.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate and the Demand for Oil

Author

Listed:
  • Selien De Schryder
  • Gert Peersman

Abstract

Using recent advances in panel data estimation techniques, we find that an appreciation of the US dollar exchange rate leads to a significant decline in oil demand for a sample of 65 oil-importing countries. The estimated effect turns out to be much larger than the impact of a shift in the global crude oil price expressed in US dollar. Furthermore, the effect of the US dollar on oil demand tends to be declining over time and, for a subsample of OECD countries, stronger for an appreciation compared to a depreciation of the US dollar.

Suggested Citation

  • Selien De Schryder & Gert Peersman, 2013. "The U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate and the Demand for Oil," CESifo Working Paper Series 4126, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4126
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp4126.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Espey, Molly, 1998. "Gasoline demand revisited: an international meta-analysis of elasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 273-295, June.
    2. Arthur van Benthem & Mattia Romani, 2009. "Fuelling Growth: What Drives Energy Demand in Developing Countries?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 91-114.
    3. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2007. "A panel cointegration analysis of the demand for oil in the Middle East," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6258-6265, December.
    4. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
    5. Engel, Charles, 2000. "Long-run PPP may not hold after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 243-273, August.
    6. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    7. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "The Role Of Time‐Varying Price Elasticities In Accounting For Volatility Changes In The Crude Oil Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 1087-1109, November.
    8. Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 185-207.
    9. Steve Bond & Asli Leblebicioglu & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2010. "Capital accumulation and growth: a new look at the empirical evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 1073-1099, November/.
    10. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    11. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
    12. Kapetanios, G. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, T., 2011. "Panels with non-stationary multifactor error structures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 326-348, February.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    14. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Selden, Thomas M., 1995. "Stoking the fires? CO2 emissions and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 85-101, May.
    15. Hillard Huntington, 2010. "Oil demand and technical progress," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(18), pages 1747-1751.
    16. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Vanessa Smith, L. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2013. "Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 94-115.
    17. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    18. Mark Gertler & Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gert03-1.
    19. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, July.
    20. Mas-Colell, Andreu & Whinston, Michael D. & Green, Jerry R., 1995. "Microeconomic Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195102680.
    21. M. J. Lombardi & I. Van Robays, 2011. "Do Financial Investors Destabilize the Oil Price?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/760, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    22. Banerjee, Anindya & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís, 2006. "Cointegration in panel data with breaks and cross-section dependence," Working Paper Series 591, European Central Bank.
    23. Valerie A. Ramey & Daniel J. Vine, 2011. "Oil, Automobiles, and the US Economy: How Much Have Things Really Changed?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, volume 25, pages 333-367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Rebecca Hellerstein, 2013. "A Structural Approach to Identifying the Sources of Local Currency Price Stability," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(1), pages 175-210.
    25. Dargay, Joyce M. & Gately, Dermot, 2010. "World oil demand's shift toward faster growing and less price-responsive products and regions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6261-6277, October.
    26. Markus Eberhardt, 2012. "Estimating panel time-series models with heterogeneous slopes," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 12(1), pages 61-71, March.
    27. Gert Peersman & Ine van Robays, 2009. "Oil and the Euro area economy [Labour market implications of EU product market integration]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(60), pages 603-651.
    28. James M. Griffin & Craig T. Schulman, 2005. "Price Asymmetry in Energy Demand Models: A Proxy for Energy-Saving Technical Change?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-22.
    29. Charles Engel, 2003. "Expenditure Switching and Exchange-Rate Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 231-300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Dermot Gately & Hiliard G. Huntington, 2002. "The Asymmetric Effects of Changes in Price and Income on Energy and Oil Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 19-55.
    31. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2012. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding The Dynamics Of Oil Market Var Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1166-1188, October.
    32. Gengenbach, C. & Urbain, J.R.Y.J. & Westerlund, J., 2008. "Panel error correction testing with global stochastic trends," Research Memorandum 051, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    33. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    34. I.O. Walker & Franz Wirl, 1993. "Irreversible Price-Induced Efficiency Improvements: Theory and Empirical Application to Road Transportation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 183-205.
    35. Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Daniel Sperling, 2008. "Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 113-134.
    36. Matthieu Bussiere, 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Trade Prices: The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 731-758, October.
    37. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Severin Borenstein & A. Colin Cameron & Richard Gilbert, 1997. "Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 305-339.
    39. Stephen P. A. Brown & Keith R. Phillips, 1986. "Exchange rates and world oil prices," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Mar, pages 1-10.
    40. Chien-Chiang Lee & Jun-De Lee, 2010. "A Panel Data Analysis of the Demand for Total Energy and Electricity in OECD Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-24.
    41. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    43. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    44. Bai, Jushan & Kao, Chihwa & Ng, Serena, 2009. "Panel cointegration with global stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 82-99, April.
    45. Askari, Hossein & Krichene, Noureddine, 2010. "An oil demand and supply model incorporating monetary policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2013-2021.
    46. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    47. Richard Schmalensee & Thomas M. Stoker & Ruth A. Judson, 1998. "World Carbon Dioxide Emissions: 1950-2050," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 15-27, February.
    48. Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2015. "Speculation in the Oil Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 621-649, June.
    49. John Y. Campbell, 2008. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number camp06-1.
    50. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    51. Haas, Reinhard & Schipper, Lee, 1998. "Residential energy demand in OECD-countries and the role of irreversible efficiency improvements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 421-442, September.
    52. Dahl, Carol & Sterner, Thomas, 1991. "Analysing gasoline demand elasticities: a survey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 203-210, July.
    53. Campbell, John Y. (ed.), 2008. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226092119.
    54. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    55. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    56. John C.B. Cooper, 2003. "Price elasticity of demand for crude oil: estimates for 23 countries," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 27(1), pages 1-8, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gert Peersman, 2022. "International Food Commodity Prices and Missing (Dis)Inflation in the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 85-100, March.
    2. Xiaohui GONG & Bisharat Hussain CHANG & Xi CHEN & Kaiyang ZHONG, 2023. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rates on Energy Demand in E7 Countries: New Evidence from Multiple Thresholds Nonlinear ARDL Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 125-142, June.
    3. Benzid, Lamia & Bakari, Sayef, 2021. "Modeling the Asymmetric Relationship between the Covid-19 and the U.S Dollar Exchange Rate: an Empirical Analysis via the NARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 105566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mongi Arfaoui & Aymen Ben Rejeb, 2017. "Oil, gold, US dollar and stock market interdependencies: a global analytical insight," European Journal of Management and Business Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 278-293, October.
    5. Fernandez-Diaz, Jose M. & Morley, Bruce, 2019. "Interdependence among agricultural commodity markets, macroeconomic factors, crude oil and commodity index," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 174-194.
    6. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2022. "Quantifying the role of interest rates, the Dollar and Covid in oil prices," BIS Working Papers 1040, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Peersman, Gert & Wauters, Joris, 2024. "Heterogeneous household responses to energy price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Marcel Fratzscher & Daniel Schneider & Ine Van Robays, 2013. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Asset Prices," CESifo Working Paper Series 4264, CESifo.
    9. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    10. Ivan, Miruna-Daniela & Banti, Chiara & Kellard, Neil, 2022. "Prime money market funds regulation, global liquidity, and the crude oil market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Kim, Jong-Min & Tabacu, Lucia & Jung, Hojin, 2020. "A quantile-copula approach to dependence between financial assets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    12. Huntington, Hillard G., 2015. "Crude oil trade and current account deficits," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 70-79.
    13. Fernandez-Diaz, Jose M. & Morley, Bruce, 2019. "Interdependence among agricultural commodity markets, macroeconomic factors, crude oil and commodity index," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 174-194.
    14. Su, Chi-Wei & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Moldovan, Nicoleta-Claudia & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2020. "Factors driving oil price —— from the perspective of United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.
    2. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2017. "Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 477-503, April.
    3. Jushan Bai & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre, 2013. "Testing panel cointegration with unobservable dynamic common factors that are correlated with the regressors," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 16(2), pages 222-249, June.
    4. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James, 2017. "Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Deman," CEPR Discussion Papers 12532, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2019. "Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1873-1910, May.
    6. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2008. "Modeling Technology and Technological Change in Manufacturing: How do Countries Differ?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2008-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    7. Tim Buyse & Freddy Heylen & Ruben Schoonackers, 2015. "On The Role Of Public Policies And Wage Formation For Private Investment In R&D: A Long-Run Panel Analysis," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/911, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    8. Markus Eberhardt & Christian Helmers & Hubert Strauss, 2013. "Do Spillovers Matter When Estimating Private Returns to R&D?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 436-448, May.
    9. Everaert, Gerdie, 2014. "A panel analysis of the fisher effect with an unobserved I(1) world real interest rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 198-210.
    10. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2015. "Demand and price uncertainty: Rational habits in international gasoline demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 40-49.
    11. Dobnik, Frauke, 2011. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Revisited: Structural Breaks and Cross-section Dependence," Ruhr Economic Papers 303, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2010. "Aggregation versus Heterogeneity in Cross-Country Growth Empirics," CSAE Working Paper Series 2010-32, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    13. Mariam Camarero & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann & Cecilio Tamarit, 2016. "Trade Openness and Income: A Tale of Two Regions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 386-408, March.
    14. Dina Azhgaliyeva, 2013. "What Makes Oil Revenue Funds Effective," International Conference on Energy, Regional Integration and Socio-economic Development 6023, EcoMod.
    15. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2022. "Which are the long-run determinants of US outward FDI? Evidence using large long-memory panels," Working Papers 2022.08, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    16. Gerdie Everaert & Freddy Heylen & Ruben Schoonackers, 2015. "Fiscal policy and TFP in the OECD: measuring direct and indirect effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 605-640, September.
    17. Van Robays, Ine, 2012. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the impact of oil shocks," Working Paper Series 1479, European Central Bank.
    18. R. Golinelli & I. Mammi & A. Musolesi, 2018. "Parameter heterogeneity, persistence and cross-sectional dependence: new insights on fiscal policy reaction functions for the Euro area," Working Papers wp1120, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    19. Liddle, Brantley & Sadorsky, Perry, 2020. "How much do asymmetric changes in income and energy prices affect energy demand?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    20. Samuel Yeboah Asuamah & Joseph Ohene-Manu, 2015. "An Econometric Investigation of the Determinants of Fossil Fuel Consumption: A Multivariate Approach for Ghana," Economy, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 2(1), pages 32-43.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil demand; US dollar exchange rate; panel data; nonlinearities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4126. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.