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To Leave or Not to Leave? A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of the Impact of Failing the High School Exit Exam

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  • Dongshu Ou

Abstract

The high school exit exam (HSEE) is rapidly becoming a standardized assessment procedure for educational accountability in the United States. I use a unique state-specific dataset to identify the effect of failing the HSEE on the likelihood that a student drops out early based on a Regression Discontinuity design. It shows that students who barely fail the exam are more likely to exit than those who barely pass despite being offered retest opportunities. The discontinuity amounts to a large proportion of the dropout probability of barely-failers, particularly for minority and low-income students, suggesting that the potential benefit of raising educational standards might come at the cost of increasing inequalities in the educational system.

Suggested Citation

  • Dongshu Ou, 2009. "To Leave or Not to Leave? A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of the Impact of Failing the High School Exit Exam," CEP Discussion Papers dp0907, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0907
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    Cited by:

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    4. Harris, Douglas N. & Liu, Lihan & Barrett, Nathan & Li, Ruoxi, 2023. "Is the rise in high school graduation rates real? High-stakes school accountability and strategic behavior," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Figlio, D. & Karbownik, K. & Salvanes, K.G., 2016. "Education Research and Administrative Data," Handbook of the Economics of Education,, Elsevier.
    6. Åslund, Olof & Grönqvist, Hans & Hall, Caroline & Vlachos, Jonas, 2018. "Education and criminal behavior: Insights from an expansion of upper secondary school," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 178-192.
    7. Thomas S. Dee & Will Dobbie & Brian A. Jacob & Jonah Rockoff, 2019. "The Causes and Consequences of Test Score Manipulation: Evidence from the New York Regents Examinations," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 382-423, July.
    8. Diette Timothy M. & Helms Sara E., 2014. "Trading the Television for a Textbook?: High School Exit Exams and Student Behavior," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 1015-1036, July.
    9. Ou, Dongshu, 2010. "To leave or not to leave? A regression discontinuity analysis of the impact of failing the high school exit exam," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 171-186, April.
    10. Katherine Caves & Simone Balestra, 2018. "The impact of high school exit exams on graduation rates and achievement," The Journal of Educational Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(2), pages 186-200, March.
    11. Giorgio Di Pietro, 2014. "The Short-term Effectiveness of a Remedial Mathematics Course: Evidence from a UK University," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(3), pages 363-384, June.
    12. Marcotte, Dave E., 2013. "High school dropout and teen childbearing," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 258-268.
    13. Ahn, Tom, 2014. "A regression discontinuity analysis of graduation standards and their impact on students’ academic trajectories," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 64-75.
    14. Stefanie Dufaux, 2012. "Assessment for Qualification and Certification in Upper Secondary Education: A Review of Country Practices and Research Evidence," OECD Education Working Papers 83, OECD Publishing.
    15. Lee, Kyung-Gon & Polachek, Solomon, 2014. "Do School Budgets Matter? The Effect of Budget Referenda on Student Performance," IZA Discussion Papers 8056, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Lincove, Jane Arnold & Mata, Catherine & Cortes, Kalena E., 2022. "A Bridge to Graduation: Post-secondary Effects of an Alternative Pathway for Students Who Fail High School Exit Exams," IZA Discussion Papers 15067, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Papay, John P. & Willett, John B. & Murnane, Richard J., 2011. "Extending the regression-discontinuity approach to multiple assignment variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 203-207, April.
    18. Clark, Damon & See, Edward, 2011. "The impact of tougher education standards: Evidence from Florida," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1123-1135.
    19. Whitaker, Stephan, 2011. "The impact of legalized abortion on high school graduation through selection and composition," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 228-246, April.
    20. Polson, Chester, 2018. "TAKS-ing students? Texas exit exam effects on human capital formation," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 129-150.
    21. Tafreschi, Darjusch & Thiemann, Petra, 2016. "Doing it twice, getting it right? The effects of grade retention and course repetition in higher education," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 198-219.
    22. Joshua C. Hall & Donald J. Lacombe & Shree B. Pokharel, 2020. "State Exit Exams and Graduation Rates: A Hierarchical SLX Modelling Approach," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 50(2), pages 189-206.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    high school exit exam; student dropout; regression discontinuity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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