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A Review of the International Modeling Literature: Transit, Land Use, and Auto Pricing Strategies to Reduce Vehicle Miles Traveled and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

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  • Rodier, Caroline J.

Abstract

California led the nation by passing the first global warming legislation in the U.S. California is tasked with reducing green house gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. The California Air Resources Board estimates that significant GHG reductions from passenger vehicles can be achieved through improvements in vehicle technology and the low carbon fuel standard; however, these reductions will not be enough to achieve 1990 levels if current trends in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) continue. Currently, most operational regional models in California have limited ability to represent the effects of transit, land use, and auto pricing strategies; efforts are now underway to develop more advanced modeling tools, including activity-based travel and land use models. In the interim, this report reviews the international modeling literature on land use, transit, and auto pricing policies to suggest a range of VMT and GHG reduction that regions might achieve if such policies were implemented. The synthesis of the literature categorizes studies, by geographic area, policy strength, and model type, to provide insight into order of magnitude estimates for 10-, 20-, 30-, and 40-years time horizons. The analysis also highlights the effects of modeling tools of differing quality, policy implementation timeframes, and variations in urban form on the relative effectiveness of policy scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodier, Caroline J., 2009. "A Review of the International Modeling Literature: Transit, Land Use, and Auto Pricing Strategies to Reduce Vehicle Miles Traveled and Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt2jh2m3ps, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2jh2m3ps
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    1. Safirova, Elena A. & Houde, Sébastien & Harrington, Winston, 2007. "Spatial Development and Energy Consumption," RFF Working Paper Series dp-07-51, Resources for the Future.
    2. Deakin, Elizabeth & Harvey, Greig & Pozdena, Randall & Yarema, Geoffrey, 1996. "Transportation Pricing Strategies for California: An Assessment of Congestion, Emissions, Energy. And Equity Impacts," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt723002kt, University of California Transportation Center.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xue Wang & Suwei Feng & Tianyi Tang, 2023. "Acceptability toward Policy Mix: Impact of Low-Carbon Travel Intention, Fairness, and Effectiveness," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-22, October.
    2. Efthymiou, Dimitrios & Antoniou, Constantinos & Waddell, Paul, 2013. "Factors affecting the adoption of vehicle sharing systems by young drivers," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 64-73.
    3. Woldeamanuel, Mintesnot & Kent, Andrew, 2014. "Determinants of Per Capita Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT): The Case of California," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 53(3).
    4. Yang, Christopher & Ogden, Joan M & Hwang, Roland & Sperling, Daniel, 2011. "California’s Energy Future: Transportation Energy Use in California," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt70j8b21c, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    5. Dale Ellen Azaria & Austin Troy & Brian H Y Lee & Curtis Ventriss & Brian Voigt, 2013. "Modeling the Effects of an Urban Growth Boundary on Vehicle Travel in a Small Metropolitan Area," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 40(5), pages 846-864, October.
    6. Yang, Christopher, 2011. "California’s Energy Future: Transportation Energy Use in California," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt8j69x46d, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    7. McCollum, David & Yang, Christopher, 2009. "Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5580-5596, December.
    8. Axsen, Jonn & Wolinetz, Michael, 2021. "Taxes, tolls and ZEV zones for climate: Synthesizing insights on effectiveness, efficiency, equity, acceptability and implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    9. Mark Purdon & Julie Witcover & Colin Murphy & Sonya Ziaja & Mark Winfield & Genevieve Giuliano & Charles Séguin & Colleen Kaiser & Jacques Papy & Lewis Fulton, 2021. "Climate and transportation policy sequencing in California and Quebec," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 38(5), pages 596-630, September.
    10. Ransford A. Acheampong & Alhassan Siiba, 2020. "Modelling the determinants of car-sharing adoption intentions among young adults: the role of attitude, perceived benefits, travel expectations and socio-demographic factors," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(5), pages 2557-2580, October.
    11. Yoon-Young Chun & Mitsutaka Matsumoto & Kiyotaka Tahara & Kenichiro Chinen & Hideki Endo, 2019. "Exploring Factors Affecting Car Sharing Use Intention in the Southeast-Asia Region: A Case Study in Java, Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-26, September.

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    UCD-ITS-RR-09-39; Engineering;

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