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Market Prospects of Fuel Cell vs. Battery-Electric Trucks in Medium- and Heavy-Duty Segments in California, 2025 to 2040

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  • Zhao, Jingyuan
  • Burke, Andrew
  • Miller, Marshall
  • Fulton, Lewis

Abstract

This report evaluates the market prospects for medium- and heavy-duty fuel cell electric trucks (FCETs) and battery-electric trucks (BETs) in comparison to diesel trucks in California from 2025 to 2040. It specifically examines the market feasibility challenges facing FCETs and provides updates on technological advancements in fuel cell systems, including projections for future developments. The report presents a comprehensive cost analysis of BETs and FCETs, covering the vehicles and the necessary infrastructure. This includes total cost of ownership (TCO) considerations as well as non-cost factors such as driving range, refueling/recharging times, and their influence on the projected demand for these trucks. In additional, it provides a detailed assessment of infrastructure expenses, comparing the costs of battery-charging facilities for electric trucks with those of hydrogen refueling stations for FCETs. Finally, the study forecasts market shares under various scenarios over the next two decades, accounting for the impact of government incentives, infrastructure availability, and model diversity. The vehicle cost model indicates that fuel cell systems represent a significant portion of the initial cost for FCETs, expected to decrease from 40% to 30% for medium-duty trucks and from 20% for heavy-duty trucks by 2040. Although neither FCETs nor BETs are projected to reach initial cost parity with internal combustion engine vehicles by 2040, both are likely to achieve a lower total cost of ownership than diesel trucks due to savings on fuel and maintenance. FCETs are expected to be more competitive than BETs in heavy-duty applications due to faster refueling times, longer ranges, and lower upfront costs. Targeted incentives such as the federal Clean Vehicle Tax Credit and the Hybrid and California Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project could help bridge the cost gap between FCETs and diesel trucks in the coming years, but the robust development of hydrogen infrastructure will be essential, particularly in the early stages. FCETs are positioned to lead the heavy-duty sector, and achieving the goals of the California Air Resources Board will require significant advancements in technology, infrastructure, and policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Jingyuan & Burke, Andrew & Miller, Marshall & Fulton, Lewis, 2024. "Market Prospects of Fuel Cell vs. Battery-Electric Trucks in Medium- and Heavy-Duty Segments in California, 2025 to 2040," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt00x3x8m0, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt00x3x8m0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alexandre Milovanoff & I. Daniel Posen & Heather L. MacLean, 2020. "Electrification of light-duty vehicle fleet alone will not meet mitigation targets," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(12), pages 1102-1107, December.
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