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Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media

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  • Saskia ter Ellen
  • Vegard H. Larsen
  • Leif Anders Thorsrud

Abstract

We propose a method to quantify narratives from textual data in a structured manner, and identify what we label "narrative monetary policy surprises" as the change in economic media coverage explained by central bank communication accompanying interest rate meetings. Our proposed method is fast and simple, and relies on a Singular Value Decomposition of the different texts and articles coupled with a unit rotation identifi cation scheme. Identifying narrative surprises in central bank communication using this type of data and identifi cation provides surprise measures that are uncorrelated with conventional monetary policy surprises, and, in contrast to such surprises, have a signifi cant effect on subsequent media coverage. In turn, narrative monetary policy surprises lead to macroeconomic responses similar to what recent monetary policy literature associates with the information component of monetary policy communication. Our study highlights the importance of written central bank communication and the role of the media as information intermediaries.

Suggested Citation

  • Saskia ter Ellen & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2019. "Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media," Working Papers No 06/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:bny:wpaper:0078
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    4. Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2022. "The demand and supply of information about inflation," CIRANO Working Papers 2022s-27, CIRANO.
    5. Michael Ehrmann & Sarah Holton & Danielle Kedan & Gillian Phelan, 2024. "Monetary Policy Communication: Perspectives from Former Policymakers at the ECB," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 837-864, June.
    6. Yuting Chen & Don Bredin & Valerio Potì & Roman Matkovskyy, 2022. "COVID risk narratives: a computational linguistic approach to the econometric identification of narrative risk during a pandemic," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 17-61, March.
    7. Ehrmann, Michael & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2023. "Credibility gains from communicating with the public: evidence from the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy," Working Paper Series 2785, European Central Bank.
    8. Schmidt, Torsten & Müller, Henrik & Rieger, Jonas & Schmidt, Tobias & Jentsch, Carsten, 2023. "Inflation perception and the formation of inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 1025, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    9. Maximilian Ahrens & Deniz Erdemlioglu & Michael McMahon & Christopher J. Neely & Xiye Yang, 2023. "Mind Your Language: Market Responses to Central Bank Speeches," Working Papers 2023-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 28 Sep 2024.
    10. Julien Pinter & Evzen Kocenda, 2021. "Media Treatment of Monetary Policy Surprises and Their Impact on Firms' and Consumers' Expectations," Working Papers IES 2021/30, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2021.
    11. Lena Dräger, 2023. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public," CESifo Working Paper Series 10713, CESifo.
    12. Michael Ryan, 2020. "A Narrative Approach to Creating Instruments with Unstructured and Voluminous Text: An Application to Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers in Economics 20/10, University of Waikato.
    13. Leonardo Gambacorta & Salvatore Polizzi & Alessio Reghezza & Enzo Scannella, 2023. "Do banks practice what they preach? Brown lending and environmental disclosure in the euro area," BIS Working Papers 1143, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    communication; monetary policy; factor identification; textual data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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