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Credibility gains from communicating with the public: evidence from the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy

Author

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  • Ehrmann, Michael
  • Georgarakos, Dimitris
  • Kenny, Geoff

Abstract

We show that the announcement of the ECB’s Strategy Review and the revision of its inflation target in summer 2021 went largely unnoticed by the wider public. Although it is hard to reach out to this group, we find evidence that communicating key elements of the strategy can enhance the perceived credibility that price stability will be maintained in the medium-term. Randomised information treatments reveal that providing additional explanations about monetary policy’s stabilising role has the strongest positive impact on credibility, boosting credibility also among the less financially literate and generating more persistent credibility gains, even after inflation increased. JEL Classification: E52, E58, E31

Suggested Citation

  • Ehrmann, Michael & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2023. "Credibility gains from communicating with the public: evidence from the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy," Working Paper Series 2785, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232785
    Note: 203739
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ehrmann, Michael, 2024. "Trust in central banks," Working Paper Series 3006, European Central Bank.
    2. Felici, Marco & Kenny, Geoff & Friz, Roberta, 2023. "Consumer savings behaviour at low and negative interest rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    3. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202424 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Joris Wauters & Zivile Zekaite & Garo Garabedian, 2024. "Owner-occupied housing costs, policy communication, and inflation expectations," Working Paper Research 449, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. Dräger, Lena & Nghiem, Giang, 2023. "Inflation Literacy, Inflation Expectations, and Trust in the Central Bank: A Survey Experiment," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-709, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    6. Anna Dobrzańska & Paweł Smaga, 2024. "Assessment of macroprudential strategy documents: Are they ready for the challenges ahead?," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(4), pages 437-450, December.
    7. Hoffmann, Mathias & Mönch, Emanuel & Pavlova, Lora & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2023. "Forceful or persistent: Wow the ECB's new inflation target affects households' inflation expectations," Discussion Papers 27/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Dräger, Lena & Dalloul, Ami & Nghiem, Giang, 2024. "Anchoring Household's Inflation Expectations when Inflation is High," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302397, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank communication; Consumer Expectations Survey; credibility; financial literacy; randomised control trial;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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