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A Reconciliation of SVAR and Narrative Estimates of Tax Multipliers

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  • Ravn, Morten
  • Mertens, Karel

Abstract

Existing empirical estimates of US nationwide tax multipliers vary from close to zero to very large. Using narrative measures as proxies for structural shocks to total tax revenues in an SVAR, we estimate tax multipliers at the higher end of the range: around two on impact and up to three after 6 quarters. We show that earlier findings of lower multipliers can be explained by an output elasticity of tax revenues assumption that is contradicted by empirical evidence or by failure to account for measurement error in narrative series of tax shocks.

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  • Ravn, Morten & Mertens, Karel, 2012. "A Reconciliation of SVAR and Narrative Estimates of Tax Multipliers," CEPR Discussion Papers 8973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8973
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Measurement error; Narrative identification; Tax changes; Vector autoregressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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