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Modeling Data Revisions

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  • Juan Manuel Julio

Abstract

A dynamic linear model for data revisions and delays is proposed. This model extends Jacobs & Van Norden's [13] in two ways. First, the "true" data series is observable up to a fixed period of time M. And second, preliminary figures might be biased estimates of the true series. Otherwise, the model follows Jacobs & Van Norden's [13] so their gains are extended through the new assumptions. These assumptions represent the data release process more realistically under particular circumstances, and improve the overall identification of the model. An application to the year to year growth of the Colombian quarterly GDP reveals that preliminary growth reports under-estimate the true growth, and that measurement errors are predictable from the information available at the data release. The models implemented in this note help this purpose.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Manuel Julio, 2011. "Modeling Data Revisions," Borradores de Economia 641, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:641
    DOI: 10.32468/be.641
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    9. Fabio Busetti, 2006. "Preliminary data and econometric forecasting: an application with the Bank of Italy Quarterly Model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 1-23.
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    Cited by:

    1. Julio Roman, Juan Manuel, 2011. "The Hodrick-Prescott filter with priors: linear restrictions on HP filters," MPRA Paper 34202, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Deicy J. Cristiano & Manuel D. Hernández & José David Pulido, 2012. "Pronósticos de corto plazo en tiempo real para la actividad económica colombiana," Borradores de Economia 9827, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Juan Manuel Julio, 2011. "Data Revisions and the Output Gap," Borradores de Economia 642, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Amador-Torres, J. Sebastián, 2017. "Finance-neutral potential output: An evaluation in an emerging market monetary policy context," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 389-407.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Data Revisions; Now-casting; Real Time Economic Analysis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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