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El Costo de los Ciclos Económicos en Colombia: Una Nueva Estimación

Author

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  • Mauricio A. Hernández
  • Munir A. Jalil
  • Carlos Esteban Posada

Abstract

Los ciclos económicos colombianos de la segunda mitad del siglo XX implicaron considerables variaciones en los agregados reales de la economía. A partir de un modelo con tecnología de producción AK y una función de producción de bienes de capital que presenta retornos decrecientes para la inversión, se calculó el costo de las fluctuaciones económicas en términos de consumo y bienestar de las familias. Según nuestros resultados, bajo estabilidad económica la tasa de crecimiento de largo plazo del consumo per cápita se habría incrementado entre 0,13 y 0,47 puntos porcentuales, pasando de 1,4% por año, en el escenario fluctuante, a una tasa en el intervalo 1,53% -1,87% anual. De acuerdo con diferentes niveles de la elasticidad intertemporal de sustitución del consumo, la compensación necesaria para hacer que las familias obtuvieran un mismo bienestar bajo los dos escenarios (fluctuante y estable) equivaldría, en promedio, a 4,7% del consumo inicial.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauricio A. Hernández & Munir A. Jalil & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2005. "El Costo de los Ciclos Económicos en Colombia: Una Nueva Estimación," Borradores de Economia 353, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:353
    DOI: 10.32468/be.353
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    Cited by:

    1. Camilo Alvis & Cristian Castrillón, 2013. "Tamano óptimo del gasto público colombiano: una aproximación desde la teoría del crecimiento endógeno," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, December.
    2. Carlos Esteban Posada & Camilo Morales J. & Andrés Felipe García, 2007. "¿La inestabilidad frena el crecimiento económico?," Borradores de Economia 3814, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Pamela Góngora Salazar, 2010. "Determinantes de la volatilidad en el producto: evidencia empírica," Vniversitas Económica 8297, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    4. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Gómez, Sandra Milena, 2009. "Trade Policy and Export Diversification: What Should Colombia Expect from the FTA with the United States," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2498, Inter-American Development Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fluctuaciones; costo de los ciclos; bienestar.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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