IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/340.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Depressions in the Colombian Economic Growth Durng the XX Century: A Markov Switching Regime Model

Author

Listed:
  • Martha Misas
  • María Teresa Ramírez

Abstract

In this paper, we modeled the Colombian long run economic growth (1925-2003) using a tworegime first order Markov switching model. We found evidence of non-linearity in the annual rate of economic growth. The results show that changes between regimes are sudden and sporadic. The Colombian economy remains in the sustainable growth regime most of the time. The turning points from the Markov switching model capture very well the behavior of real output through time. In fact, they identify the four main depressions of the century.

Suggested Citation

  • Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, 2005. "Depressions in the Colombian Economic Growth Durng the XX Century: A Markov Switching Regime Model," Borradores de Economia 340, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:340
    DOI: 10.32468/be.340
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.340
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.340?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Filardo, Andrew J. & Gordon, Stephen F., 1998. "Business cycle durations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-123, July.
    2. Cristina Fernández & Andrés González G., 2000. "Integración y vulnerabilidad externa en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    3. Pok-sang Lam, 2004. "A Markov-Switching Model Of Gnp Growth With Duration Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 175-204, February.
    4. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
    5. Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 224-236, April.
    6. Carlos C. Bautista, 2002. "Boom-Bust Cycles and Crisis Periods in the Philippines : A Regime-Switching Analysis," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 39(1), pages 20-37, June.
    7. María Ripoll & Martha Misas & Enrique López, 1995. "Una Descripción del Ciclo Industrial en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 033, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    9. T C Mills & P Wang, 2003. "Estimating the Permanent and Transitory Components of the UK Business Cycle," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, March.
    10. Franz A. Hamman & Alvaro Riascos, 1998. "Ciclos Económicos en una Economía Pequeña y Abierta- Una Aplicación para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 089, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Robert Breunig & Alison Stegman, 2005. "Testing For Regime Switching In Singaporean Business Cycles," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 50(01), pages 25-34.
    12. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-328, April.
    13. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    14. Robert A. Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2004. "Markov Switching Models for GDP Growth in a Small Open Economy: The New Zealand Experience," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(2), pages 227-257.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mauricio A. Hernández M & Munir A. Jalil B & Carlos Esteban Posada P, 2007. "El costo de los ciclos económicos en Colombia: una nueva estimación," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 25(53), pages 288-335, January.
    2. Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, 2006. "Colombian economic growth under Markov switching regimes with endogenous transition probabilities," Borradores de Economia 2148, Banco de la Republica.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martha Misas & Maria Teresa Ramirez, 2007. "Depressions in the Colombian economic growth during the twentieth century: a Markov switching regime model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 803-808.
    2. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
    3. Firouz Fallahi & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2007. "Using Markov-Switching Models to Identify the Link between Unemployment and Criminality," Working Papers 0701E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    4. Moolman, Elna, 2004. "A Markov switching regime model of the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 631-646, July.
    5. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2008. "The brevity and violence of contractions and expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 738-751, May.
    6. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 1210, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    7. Rodriguez Gabriel, 2007. "Application of Three Alternative Approaches to Identify Business Cycles in Peru," Working Papers 2007-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    8. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2013. "Recoveries," CEPR Discussion Papers 9551, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov switching regime model; economic growth; fluctuations; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:340. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.