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The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth

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  • Gadi Barlevy

Abstract

Robert E. Lucas, Jr. argued that the welfare gains from reducing aggregate consumption volatility are negligible. Subsequent work that revisited his calculation continued to find small welfare benefits, further reinforcing the perception that business cycles do not matter. This paper argues instead that fluctuations can affect welfare, by affecting the growth rate of consumption. I show that fluctuations can reduce growth starting from a given initial consumption, which can imply substantial welfare effects as Lucas himself observed. Empirical evidence suggests the welfare effects are likely to be substantial, about two orders of magnitude greater than Lucas' original estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 964-990, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:94:y:2004:i:4:p:964-990
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/0002828042002615
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing

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    1. The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth (AER 2004) in ReplicationWiki
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