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Depressions In The Colombian Economic Growth During The Xx Century:A Markov Switching Regime Model

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  • Martha Misas
  • María Teresa Ramírez

Abstract

In this paper, we modeled the Colombian long run economic growth (1925-2003) using a tworegime first order Markov switching model. We found evidence of non-linearity in the annual rate of economic growth. The results show that changes between regimes are sudden and sporadic. The Colombian economy remains in the sustainable growth regime most of the time. The turning points from the Markov switching model capture very well the behavior of real output through time. In fact, they identify the four main depressions of the century.

Suggested Citation

  • Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, 2005. "Depressions In The Colombian Economic Growth During The Xx Century:A Markov Switching Regime Model," Borradores de Economia 2274, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002274
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mauricio A. Hernández M & Munir A. Jalil B & Carlos Esteban Posada P, 2007. "El costo de los ciclos económicos en Colombia: una nueva estimación," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 25(53), pages 288-335, January.
    2. Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, 2006. "Colombian economic growth under Markov switching regimes with endogenous transition probabilities," Borradores de Economia 2148, Banco de la Republica.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov switching regime model;

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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