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Volatility, growth, and welfare

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  • Wang, Peng-fei
  • Wen, Yi

Abstract

This paper constructs an endogenous growth model driven by self-fulfilling expectation shocks to explain the stylized fact that the average growth rate of GDP is related negatively to volatility and positively to capacity utilization. The implied welfare gain from further stabilizing the U.S. economy is about a quarter of annual consumption, which is consistent in order of magnitude with estimates based on the empirical studies of Ramey and Ramey (1995) and Alvarez and Jermann (2004). Hence, policies designed to reduce fluctuations can generate large welfare gains because smaller fluctuations are associated with permanently higher rates of growth.

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  • Wang, Peng-fei & Wen, Yi, 2011. "Volatility, growth, and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1696-1709, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:35:y:2011:i:10:p:1696-1709
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    6. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Effect of the duration of membership in the GATT/WTO on economic growth volatility," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 448-467.
    7. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of the Duration of Membership in the GATT/WTO on Human Development in Developed and Developing Countries," EconStor Preprints 265061, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen & Zhiwei Xu, 2018. "Financial Development and Long-Run Volatility Trends," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 221-251, April.
    9. Mario Holzner & Stefan Jestl & David Pichler, 2022. "Public and private pension systems and macroeconomic volatility in OECD countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 131-168, May.
    10. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2024. "Export product quality and inclusivity in developing countries," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 807-843, July.
    11. Jetter, Michael, 2014. "Volatility and growth: Governments are key," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 71-88.
    12. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2023. "Effect of the duration of membership in the GATT/WTO on human development in developed and developing countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 943-983, November.
    13. Chang, Shu-hua & Lai, Ching-chong, 2016. "Vertical separation versus vertical integration in an endogenously growing economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 359-380.
    14. Michael Jetter, 2013. "Volatility and Growth: An Explanation for the Disagreement," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 10944, Universidad EAFIT.

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