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Climate change and Italian agriculture: evidence from weather shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio Accetturo

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Matteo Alpino

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We estimate the effect of weather shocks on yield of corn, durum wheat, and grapevine using two-way fixed effect models on Italian province-level panel data at the annual frequency. Our estimates reveal substantial non-linearity in the effect of temperature on agricultural yields, in line with the literature. Furthermore, grapevine appears less sensitive to heat than cereals. Combining our estimates with projections on future climate under the A1B scenario, we find that by 2030 the effects of climate change on crop yield will be non-negative. The crop at the highest risk of losses is corn.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Accetturo & Matteo Alpino, 2023. "Climate change and Italian agriculture: evidence from weather shocks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 756, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_756_23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    temperature shocks; precipitation; agricultural yields; climate change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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