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The impact of climate change on agriculture: A repeat-Ricardian analysis
[L'impact du changement climatique sur l'agriculture : Une analyse ricardienne répétée]

Author

Listed:
  • François Bareille

    (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Raja Chakir

    (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

Ricardian analyses of farmland values have become a cornerstone of the literature valuing the impacts of climate change on agriculture. However, concerns about the lack of a formal econometric strategy to deal with omitted farmland characteristics have raised doubts about the identification of such impacts. This paper proposes an original method for estimating Ricardian models with plot fixed effects to control for confounding omitted variables. Specifically, we use plot-level repeat-sales French data from 1996 to 2019 to investigate how differences in farmland prices between two sale dates are explained by differences in climate conditions. We show that our repeat-Ricardian estimates suggest greater benefits of climate change than those found with standard Ricardian analyses. In particular, our repeat-Ricardian estimates indicate that warmer summers benefit French agriculture, in complete opposition to our pooled Ricardian estimates or to the remainder of the literature. Our repeat-Ricardian results are robust to several specifications, climate length-definitions and sub-samples. We provide elements suggesting that the repeat-Ricardian analysis is better able to capture crop-switching towards high-value crops requiring particular soil conditions (e.g. vineyards). Our repeat-Ricardian analysis also indicates greater benefits of climate change compared to those estimated with short-term weather-based approaches, shedding new lights on previous inconsistent findings from the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • François Bareille & Raja Chakir, 2023. "The impact of climate change on agriculture: A repeat-Ricardian analysis [L'impact du changement climatique sur l'agriculture : Une analyse ricardienne répétée]," Post-Print hal-04092408, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04092408
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102822
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    Cited by:

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    2. François Bareille & Raja Chakir, 2024. "Structural identification of weather impacts on crop yields: Disentangling agronomic from adaptation effects," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(3), pages 989-1019, May.
    3. Liu, Tie-Ying & Lin, Ye, 2023. "Does global warming affect unemployment? International evidence," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 991-1005.
    4. Jin Chen & Yue Chen & Wei Zhou, 2024. "Relation exploration between clean and fossil energy markets when experiencing climate change uncertainties: substitutes or complements?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Bozzola, Martina & Lamonaca, Emilia, 2020. "Impacts of Climate Change on Global Agri-Food Trade," 2019: Recent Advances in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling: Relevance and Application to Agricultural Trade Analysis, December 8-10, 2019, Washington, DC 339375, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    6. Edem Douvi, 2024. "Measuring the impact of climate change on cereal production in Sub-Saharan Africa," Post-Print hal-04704851, HAL.
    7. Stefan Wimmer & Christian Stetter & Jonas Schmitt & Robert Finger, 2024. "Farm‐level responses to weather trends: A structural model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(3), pages 1241-1273, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Repeat sales;

    JEL classification:

    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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