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The generation gap: a cohort analysis of earnings levels, dispersion and initial labor market conditions in Italy, 1974-2014

Author

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  • Alfonso Rosolia

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Roberto Torrini

    (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

We discuss entry wages, career patterns and inequality developments of successive cohorts who have entered the Italian labour market between 1974 and 2014. We find that entry wages started to decline around the mid-1990s; the drop continued at least until the onset of the global financial crisis, seemingly slowing down thereafter. This pattern cannot be explained by changes in observable job characteristics. Falling entry wages have not been accompanied by faster subsequent career paths; rather, subsequent career paths have increasingly featured rising earnings dispersion due to both increased workers heterogeneity and greater temporary earnings instability. We relate such developments to the changes in labour market institutions that took place between the early 1990s and the mid-2000s.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfonso Rosolia & Roberto Torrini, 2016. "The generation gap: a cohort analysis of earnings levels, dispersion and initial labor market conditions in Italy, 1974-2014," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 366, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_366_16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrea Brandolini & Piero Casadio & Piero Cipollone & Marco Magnani & Alfonso Rosolia, 2007. "Employment Growth in Italy in the 1990s: Institutional Arrangements and Market Forces," AIEL Series in Labour Economics, in: Nicola Acocella & Riccardo Leoni (ed.), Social Pacts, Employment and Growth. A Reappraisal of Ezio Tarantelli’s Thought, edition 1, chapter 4, pages 31-68, AIEL - Associazione Italiana Economisti del Lavoro.
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    4. Philip Oreopoulos & Till von Wachter & Andrew Heisz, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, January.
    5. Paul Beaudry & David A. Green & Benjamin M. Sand, 2014. "The Declining Fortunes of the Young since 2000," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 381-386, May.
    6. Nicola Acocella & Riccardo Leoni (ed.), 2007. "Social Pacts, Employment and Growth," AIEL Series in Labour Economics, Springer, number 978-3-7908-1923-6.
    7. Marco Manacorda, 2004. "Can the Scala Mobile Explain the Fall and Rise of Earnings Inequality in Italy? A Semiparametric Analysis, 19771993," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 22(3), pages 585-614, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Josué Diwambuena & Raquel Fonseca & Stefan Schubert, 2021. "Italian Labour Frictions and Wage Rigidities in an Estimated DSGE," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS88, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    2. Struffolino, Emanuela & Raitano, Michele, 2020. "Early-career complexity before and after labour-market deregulation in Italy: Heterogeneity by gender and socio-economic status across cohorts," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 151(1), pages 231-257.
    3. Benoit Dostie & Genevieve Dufour & Raquel Fonseca & Étienne Lalé, 2020. "Évolution séculaire du profil des salaires en fonction de l’âge : Québec, Canada et États-Unis," CIRANO Project Reports 2020rp-21, CIRANO.
    4. Gaetano Basso & Adele Grompone & Francesca Modena, 2021. "The (little) reallocation potential of workers most hit by the COVID-19 crisis," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 151-186.
    5. Eran B. Hoffmann & Davide Malacrino & Luigi Pistaferri, 2022. "Earnings dynamics and labor market reforms: The Italian case," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1637-1667, November.
    6. Andrea Brandolini & Romina Gambacorta & Alfonso Rosolia, 2018. "Inequality amid income stagnation: Italy over the last quarter of a century," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 442, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Giangregorio Luca & Fana Marta, 2021. "The structure of the labour market and wage inequality using RIF-OLS: the Italian case," JRC Working Papers on Labour, Education and Technology 2021-11, Joint Research Centre.
    8. Dino Pinelli & Roberta Torre & Lucianajulia Pace & Laura Cassio & Alfonso Arpaia, 2017. "The Recent Reform of the Labour Market in Italy: A Review," European Economy - Discussion Papers 072, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    9. Alessio Tomelleri, 2020. "The Role of Temporary Jobs in Explaining Increasing Inequality for Recent Cohorts in Italy," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS71, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    10. Alessio Tomelleri, 2022. "Earnings instability and non-standard employment: cohort-based evidence from the Italian labour market," FBK-IRVAPP Working Papers 2022-02, Research Institute for the Evaluation of Public Policies (IRVAPP), Bruno Kessler Foundation.
    11. Francesca Subioli & Michele Raitano, 2022. "Differences set in stone: evidence on the inequality-mobility trade off in italy," Working Papers 633, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    earnings distribution; cohort effects; labor market reforms; earnings dispersion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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