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Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023

Author

Listed:
  • Salma Ahmed
  • Aviel Avshalumov
  • Tania Chaar
  • Eshini Ekanayake
  • Helen Lao
  • Louis Poirier
  • Jenna Rolland-Mills
  • Argyn Toktamyssov
  • Lin Xiang

Abstract

We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.8% by 2026. Compared with the April 2022 staff assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, unchanged from the last annual assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Salma Ahmed & Aviel Avshalumov & Tania Chaar & Eshini Ekanayake & Helen Lao & Louis Poirier & Jenna Rolland-Mills & Argyn Toktamyssov & Lin Xiang, 2023. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023," Staff Analytical Notes 2023-5, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:23-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Kyle Boutilier & Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Eshini Ekanayake & Louis Poirier & Peter Shannon & Akash Uppal & Lin Xiang, 2022. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-4, Bank of Canada.
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    6. Xin Scott Chen & Ali Jaffery & Guillaume Nolin & Karim Salhab & Peter Shannon & Subrata Sarker, 2020. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: October 2020," Discussion Papers 2020-10, Bank of Canada.
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    Cited by:

    1. Julien Champagne & Christopher Hajzler & Dmitry Matveev & Harlee Melinchuk & Antoine Poulin-Moore & Kemal Ozhan & Youngmin Park & Temel Taskin, 2023. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2023-6, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; Monetary policy; Potential output; Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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