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The Shift to Commitment Politics and Populism:Theory and Evidence

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Listed:
  • Luca Bellodi
  • Massimo Morelli
  • Antonio Nicolò
  • Paolo Roberti

Abstract

The decline in voters' trust in government and the rise of populism are two concerning features of contemporary politics. In this paper, we present a model of commitment politics that elucidates the interplay between distrust and populism. Candidates supply policy commitments to mitigate voters' distrust in government, shrinking politicians' levels of discretion typical of representative democracies. Alongside commitments, candidates rationally choose the main strategies associated with populism, namely anti-elite and pro-people rhetoric. With novel data on voters' distrust towards the U.S. federal government, which we match with the Twitter activity of more than 2,000 candidates over _ve congressional elections, we show that distrust is strongly associated with candidates' supply of commitments and populist rhetoric, which are also e_ective strategies at mobilizing distrustful voters. We also show theoretically that the shift to commitment politics determines greater aversion to checks and balances, and hence even illiberal populism can emerge.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Bellodi & Massimo Morelli & Antonio Nicolò & Paolo Roberti, 2023. "The Shift to Commitment Politics and Populism:Theory and Evidence," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23204, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp23204
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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Bellodi & Frederic Docquier & Stefano Iandolo & Massimo Morelli & Riccardo Turati, 2024. "Digging Up Trenches: Populism, Selective Mobility, and the Political Polarization of Italian Municipalities," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24216, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    2. Sergei Mikhalishchev & Vladimir Novak, 2024. "Inattention, Stability, and Reform Reluctance," Working and Discussion Papers WP 8/2024, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    3. Tito Boeri & Matteo Gamalerio & Massimo Morelli & Margherita Negri, 2024. "Pay-as-they-get-in: attitudes toward migrants and pension systems," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 63-78.
    4. L. Guiso & H. Herrera & M. Morelli & T. Sonno, 2024. "Economic insecurity and the demand for populism in Europe," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(362), pages 588-620, April.
    5. Pierpaolo Battigalli, 2023. "A Note On Reduced Strategies And Cognitive Hierarchies In The Extensive And Normal Form," Working Papers 706, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    6. Gabriele Gratton & Barton E. Lee, 2023. "Drain the Swamp: A Theory of Anti-Elite Populism," Discussion Papers 2023-02, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Populism; Commitment; Anti-Elite Rhetoric; Trust; Turnout; Agencies of Restraint;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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