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Populism and Kept Promises: Evidence from U.S. Congress Candidates and Legislators

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  • Luca Vitale

Abstract

This paper documents a strong relationship between populist strategy and commitment to simple policies during the electoral campaign by U.S. Congress candidates. Using data from U.S. Congress elections of 2018 and 2020, I provide evidence that an increase in commitment is associated with an increase in populist rhetoric in candidates' platforms. Moreover, populists seem to keep their promises after the elections. Analysing texts from 2019 Congressional records' shows that legislators who chose a populist strategy during the electoral campaign present policies systematically more similar to their campaign speeches compared to non-populist legislators. The results confirm the predictions of theoretical models present in the literature, emphasising the simplistic and unrealistic character of populist politicians.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Vitale, 2022. "Populism and Kept Promises: Evidence from U.S. Congress Candidates and Legislators," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22175, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp22175
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Georgy Egorov & Konstantin Sonin, 2013. "A Political Theory of Populism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(2), pages 771-805.
    2. Italo Colantone & Piero Stanig, 2018. "The Trade Origins of Economic Nationalism: Import Competition and Voting Behavior in Western Europe," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(4), pages 936-953, October.
    3. Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2021. "Inequality Aversion, Populism, and the Backlash against Globalization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2857-2906, December.
    4. Massimo Morelli & Antonio Nicolò & Paolo Roberti, 2021. "A Commitment Theory of Populism," CESifo Working Paper Series 9473, CESifo.
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    Keywords

    populism; text analysis; electoral campaigns; commitment dictionary;
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