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When to end a lock down? How fast must vaccination campaigns proceed in order to keep health costs in check?

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  • Claudius Gros
  • Thomas Czypionka
  • Daniel Gros

Abstract

We propose a simple rule of thumb for countries which have embarked on a vaccination campaign while still facing the need to keep non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) in place because of the ongoing spread of SARS-CoV-2. If the aim is to keep the death rate from increasing, NPIs can be loosened when it is possible to vaccinate more than twice the growth rate of new cases. If the aim is to keep the pressure on hospitals under control, the vaccination rate has to be about four times higher. These simple rules can be derived from the observation that the risk of death or a severe course requiring hospitalization from a COVID-19 infection increases exponentially with age and that the sizes of age cohorts decrease linearly at the top of the population pyramid. Protecting the over 60-year-olds, which constitute approximately one-quarter of the population in Europe (and most OECD countries), reduces the potential loss of life by 95 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudius Gros & Thomas Czypionka & Daniel Gros, 2021. "When to end a lock down? How fast must vaccination campaigns proceed in order to keep health costs in check?," Papers 2103.15544, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2103.15544
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Claudius Gros & Daniel Gros, 2021. "Incentives for accelerating the production of Covid-19 vaccines in the presence of adjustment costs," Papers 2102.09807, arXiv.org.
    2. Andrew T. Levin & William P. Hanage & Nana Owusu-Boaitey & Kensington B. Cochran & Seamus P. Walsh & Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, 2020. "Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, & Public Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 27597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Claudius Gros & Roser Valenti & Lukas Schneider & Kilian Valenti & Daniel Gros, 2020. "Containment efficiency and control strategies for the Corona pandemic costs," Papers 2004.00493, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
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