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Containment efficiency and control strategies for the Corona pandemic costs

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  • Claudius Gros
  • Roser Valenti
  • Lukas Schneider
  • Kilian Valenti
  • Daniel Gros

Abstract

The rapid spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) confronts policy makers with the problem of measuring the effectiveness of containment strategies, balancing public health considerations with the economic costs of social distancing measures. We introduce a modified epidemic model that we name the controlled-SIR model, in which the disease reproduction rate evolves dynamically in response to political and societal reactions. An analytic solution is presented. The model reproduces official COVID-19 cases counts of a large number of regions and countries that surpassed the first peak of the outbreak. A single unbiased feedback parameter is extracted from field data and used to formulate an index that measures the efficiency of containment strategies (the CEI index). CEI values for a range of countries are given. For two variants of the controlled-SIR model, detailed estimates of the total medical and socio-economic costs are evaluated over the entire course of the epidemic. Costs comprise medical care cost, the economic cost of social distancing, as well as the economic value of lives saved. Under plausible parameters, strict measures fare better than a hands-off policy. Strategies based on current case numbers lead to substantially higher total costs than strategies based on the overall history of the epidemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudius Gros & Roser Valenti & Lukas Schneider & Kilian Valenti & Daniel Gros, 2020. "Containment efficiency and control strategies for the Corona pandemic costs," Papers 2004.00493, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2004.00493
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Health

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    Cited by:

    1. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & D'Imperio, Paolo & Felici, Francesco, 2022. "The fiscal response to the Italian COVID-19 crisis: A counterfactual analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Claudius Gros & Thomas Czypionka & Daniel Gros, 2021. "When to end a lock down? How fast must vaccination campaigns proceed in order to keep health costs in check?," Papers 2103.15544, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Claudius Gros & Daniel Gros, 2021. "How Fast Must Vaccination Campaigns Proceed in Order to Beat Rising Covid-19 Infection Numbers?," EconPol Policy Brief 34, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    4. Isabel Günther & Kenneth Harttgen & Johannes Seiler & Jürg Utzinger, 2022. "An index of access to essential infrastructure to identify where physical distancing is impossible," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Unruh, Lynn & Allin, Sara & Marchildon, Greg & Burke, Sara & Barry, Sarah & Siersbaek, Rikke & Thomas, Steve & Rajan, Selina & Koval, Andriy & Alexander, Mathew & Merkur, Sherry & Webb, Erin & William, 2022. "A comparison of 2020 health policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada, Ireland, the United Kingdom and the United States of America," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(5), pages 427-437.
    6. Vines, David & Maciejowski, Jan & Rowthorn, Robert & Sheffield, Scott & Williamson, Annie, 2021. "Cost/benefit analysis of Covid-19 pandemic suppression using an SEIR model," INET Oxford Working Papers 2021-14, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.

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