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Deep Video Prediction for Time Series Forecasting

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  • Zhen Zeng
  • Tucker Balch
  • Manuela Veloso

Abstract

Time series forecasting is essential for decision making in many domains. In this work, we address the challenge of predicting prices evolution among multiple potentially interacting financial assets. A solution to this problem has obvious importance for governments, banks, and investors. Statistical methods such as Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) are widely applied to these problems. In this paper, we propose to approach economic time series forecasting of multiple financial assets in a novel way via video prediction. Given past prices of multiple potentially interacting financial assets, we aim to predict the prices evolution in the future. Instead of treating the snapshot of prices at each time point as a vector, we spatially layout these prices in 2D as an image, such that we can harness the power of CNNs in learning a latent representation for these financial assets. Thus, the history of these prices becomes a sequence of images, and our goal becomes predicting future images. We build on a state-of-the-art video prediction method for forecasting future images. Our experiments involve the prediction task of the price evolution of nine financial assets traded in U.S. stock markets. The proposed method outperforms baselines including ARIMA, Prophet, and variations of the proposed method, demonstrating the benefits of harnessing the power of CNNs in the problem of economic time series forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhen Zeng & Tucker Balch & Manuela Veloso, 2021. "Deep Video Prediction for Time Series Forecasting," Papers 2102.12061, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2102.12061
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2018. "The M4 Competition: Results, findings, conclusion and way forward," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 802-808.
    5. Bairui Du & Delmiro Fernandez-Reyes & Paolo Barucca, 2020. "Image Processing Tools for Financial Time Series Classification," Papers 2008.06042, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    6. Safari, Ali & Davallou, Maryam, 2018. "Oil price forecasting using a hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 49-58.
    7. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 5-10.
    8. Pai, Ping-Feng & Lin, Chih-Sheng, 2005. "A hybrid ARIMA and support vector machines model in stock price forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 497-505, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. V. Lanzetta, 2024. "Transfer learning for financial data predictions: a systematic review," Papers 2409.17183, arXiv.org.

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