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Forecasting Trends in Time Series

Author

Listed:
  • Everette S. Gardner, Jr.

    (Operations Analysis Department, Navy Fleet Material Support Office, P.O. Box 2010, Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania 17055)

  • Ed. Mckenzie

    (Mathematics Department, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XW, Scotland, United Kingdom)

Abstract

Most time series methods assume that any trend will continue unabated, regardless of the forecast lead time. But recent empirical findings suggest that forecast accuracy can be improved by either damping or ignoring altogether trends which have a low probability of persistence. This paper develops an exponential smoothing model designed to damp erratic trends. The model is tested using the sample of 1,001 time series first analyzed by Makridakis et al. Compared to smoothing models based on a linear trend, the model improves forecast accuracy, particularly at long leadtimes. The model also compares favorably to sophisticated time series models noted for good long-range performance, such as those of Lewandowski and Parzen.

Suggested Citation

  • Everette S. Gardner, Jr. & Ed. Mckenzie, 1985. "Forecasting Trends in Time Series," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(10), pages 1237-1246, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:31:y:1985:i:10:p:1237-1246
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.31.10.1237
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    Keywords

    forecasting: time series;

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