IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jforec/v3y2021i2p21-338d552197.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Queue Length Forecasting in Complex Manufacturing Job Shops

Author

Listed:
  • Marvin Carl May

    (wbk Institute of Production Science, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Kaiserstr. 12, 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany)

  • Alexander Albers

    (wbk Institute of Production Science, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Kaiserstr. 12, 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany)

  • Marc David Fischer

    (wbk Institute of Production Science, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Kaiserstr. 12, 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany)

  • Florian Mayerhofer

    (wbk Institute of Production Science, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Kaiserstr. 12, 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany)

  • Louis Schäfer

    (wbk Institute of Production Science, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Kaiserstr. 12, 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany)

  • Gisela Lanza

    (wbk Institute of Production Science, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Kaiserstr. 12, 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany)

Abstract

Currently, manufacturing is characterized by increasing complexity both on the technical and organizational levels. Thus, more complex and intelligent production control methods are developed in order to remain competitive and achieve operational excellence. Operations management described early on the influence among target metrics, such as queuing times, queue length, and production speed. However, accurate predictions of queue lengths have long been overlooked as a means to better understanding manufacturing systems. In order to provide queue length forecasts, this paper introduced a methodology to identify queue lengths in retrospect based on transitional data, as well as a comparison of easy-to-deploy machine learning-based queue forecasting models. Forecasting, based on static data sets, as well as time series models can be shown to be successfully applied in an exemplary semiconductor case study. The main findings concluded that accurate queue length prediction, even with minimal available data, is feasible by applying a variety of techniques, which can enable further research and predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Marvin Carl May & Alexander Albers & Marc David Fischer & Florian Mayerhofer & Louis Schäfer & Gisela Lanza, 2021. "Queue Length Forecasting in Complex Manufacturing Job Shops," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-17, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:3:y:2021:i:2:p:21-338:d:552197
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/3/2/21/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/3/2/21/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter R. Winters, 1960. "Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 324-342, April.
    2. Wu, Kan & McGinnis, Leon, 2012. "Performance evaluation for general queueing networks in manufacturing systems: Characterizing the trade-off between queue time and utilization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 328-339.
    3. Junliang Wang & Jie Zhang, 2016. "Big data analytics for forecasting cycle time in semiconductor wafer fabrication system," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(23), pages 7231-7244, December.
    4. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Author's retrospective on 'Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages'," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 11-13.
    5. Debjit Roy, 2016. "Semi-open queuing networks: a review of stochastic models, solution methods and new research areas," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(6), pages 1735-1752, March.
    6. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 5-10.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Walayat Hussain & Asma Musabah Alkalbani & Honghao Gao, 2021. "Forecasting with Machine Learning Techniques," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-2, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meira, Erick & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & de Menezes, Lilian M., 2022. "Forecasting natural gas consumption using Bagging and modified regularization techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    2. Fieger, Peter & Rice, John, 2016. "Modelling Chinese Inbound Tourism Arrivals into Christchurch," MPRA Paper 75468, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Albrecht, Tobias & Rausch, Theresa Maria & Derra, Nicholas Daniel, 2021. "Call me maybe: Methods and practical implementation of artificial intelligence in call center arrivals’ forecasting," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 267-278.
    4. Kosuke Kawakami & Hirokazu Kobayashi & Kazuhide Nakata, 2021. "Seasonal Inventory Management Model for Raw Materials in Steel Industry," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 51(4), pages 312-324, July.
    5. Andrea Kolková & Petr Rozehnal, 2022. "Hybrid demand forecasting models: pre-pandemic and pandemic use studies," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(3), pages 699-725, September.
    6. Feng Xu & Mohamad Sepehri & Jian Hua & Sergey Ivanov & Julius N. Anyu, 2018. "Time-Series Forecasting Models for Gasoline Prices in China," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(12), pages 1-43, December.
    7. Theresa Maria Rausch & Tobias Albrecht & Daniel Baier, 2022. "Beyond the beaten paths of forecasting call center arrivals: on the use of dynamic harmonic regression with predictor variables," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 92(4), pages 675-706, May.
    8. Veiga, Claudimar Pereira da & Veiga, Cássia Rita Pereira da & Puchalski, Weslly & Coelho, Leandro dos Santos & Tortato, Ubiratã, 2016. "Demand forecasting based on natural computing approaches applied to the foodstuff retail segment," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 174-181.
    9. Hill, Arthur V. & Zhang, Weiyong & Burch, Gerald F., 2015. "Forecasting the forecastability quotient for inventory management," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 651-663.
    10. Zhen Zeng & Rachneet Kaur & Suchetha Siddagangappa & Saba Rahimi & Tucker Balch & Manuela Veloso, 2023. "Financial Time Series Forecasting using CNN and Transformer," Papers 2304.04912, arXiv.org.
    11. Maia, André Luis Santiago & de Carvalho, Francisco de A.T., 2011. "Holt's exponential smoothing and neural network models for forecasting interval-valued time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 740-759, July.
    12. Wang, Zheng-Xin & Wang, Zhi-Wei & Li, Qin, 2020. "Forecasting the industrial solar energy consumption using a novel seasonal GM(1,1) model with dynamic seasonal adjustment factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    13. Isra Al-Turaiki & Fahad Almutlaq & Hend Alrasheed & Norah Alballa, 2021. "Empirical Evaluation of Alternative Time-Series Models for COVID-19 Forecasting in Saudi Arabia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-19, August.
    14. Paris A. Mastorocostas & Constantinos S. Hilas & Dimitris N. Varsamis & Stergiani C. Dova, 2016. "Telecommunications call volume forecasting with a block-diagonal recurrent fuzzy neural network," Telecommunication Systems: Modelling, Analysis, Design and Management, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 15-25, September.
    15. Sabaj, Ernil & Kahveci, Mustafa, 2018. "Forecasting tax revenues in an emerging economy: The case of Albania," MPRA Paper 84404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Maia, André Luis Santiago & de Carvalho, Francisco de A.T., 2011. "Holt’s exponential smoothing and neural network models for forecasting interval-valued time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 740-759.
    17. Dalton Garcia Borges de Souza & Erivelton Antonio dos Santos & Francisco Tarcísio Alves Júnior & Mariá Cristina Vasconcelos Nascimento, 2021. "On Comparing Cross-Validated Forecasting Models with a Novel Fuzzy-TOPSIS Metric: A COVID-19 Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-25, December.
    18. Felipe Santos‐Marquez, 2022. "Spatial beta‐convergence forecasting models: Evidence from municipal homicide rates in Colombia," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 294-302, March.
    19. Rice, William L. & Park, So Young & Pan, Bing & Newman, Peter, 2019. "Forecasting campground demand in US national parks," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 424-438.
    20. Stefan Mihai Petrea & Cristina Zamfir & Ira Adeline Simionov & Alina Mogodan & Florian Marcel Nuţă & Adrian Turek Rahoveanu & Dumitru Nancu & Dragos Sebastian Cristea & Florin Marian Buhociu, 2021. "A Forecasting and Prediction Methodology for Improving the Blue Economy Resilience to Climate Change in the Romanian Lower Danube Euroregion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-36, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:3:y:2021:i:2:p:21-338:d:552197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.