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Deep Learning for Market by Order Data

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  • Zihao Zhang
  • Bryan Lim
  • Stefan Zohren

Abstract

Market by order (MBO) data - a detailed feed of individual trade instructions for a given stock on an exchange - is arguably one of the most granular sources of microstructure information. While limit order books (LOBs) are implicitly derived from it, MBO data is largely neglected by current academic literature which focuses primarily on LOB modelling. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of MBO data for forecasting high-frequency price movements, providing an orthogonal source of information to LOB snapshots and expanding the universe of alpha discovery. We provide the first predictive analysis on MBO data by carefully introducing the data structure and presenting a specific normalisation scheme to consider level information in order books and to allow model training with multiple instruments. Through forecasting experiments using deep neural networks, we show that while MBO-driven and LOB-driven models individually provide similar performance, ensembles of the two can lead to improvements in forecasting accuracy - indicating that MBO data is additive to LOB-based features.

Suggested Citation

  • Zihao Zhang & Bryan Lim & Stefan Zohren, 2021. "Deep Learning for Market by Order Data," Papers 2102.08811, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2102.08811
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zihao Zhang & Stefan Zohren & Stephen Roberts, 2018. "BDLOB: Bayesian Deep Convolutional Neural Networks for Limit Order Books," Papers 1811.10041, arXiv.org.
    2. James Wallbridge, 2020. "Transformers for Limit Order Books," Papers 2003.00130, arXiv.org.
    3. Antonio Briola & Jeremy Turiel & Tomaso Aste, 2020. "Deep Learning modeling of Limit Order Book: a comparative perspective," Papers 2007.07319, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    4. Mills,Terence C., 1991. "Time Series Techniques for Economists," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405744, September.
    5. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    6. Peter Belcak & Jan-Peter Calliess & Stefan Zohren, 2020. "Fast Agent-Based Simulation Framework with Applications to Reinforcement Learning and the Study of Trading Latency Effects," Papers 2008.07871, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    7. Justin Sirignano & Rama Cont, 2019. "Universal features of price formation in financial markets: perspectives from deep learning," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 1449-1459, September.
    8. Zihao Zhang & Stefan Zohren & Stephen Roberts, 2019. "Extending Deep Learning Models for Limit Order Books to Quantile Regression," Papers 1906.04404, arXiv.org.
    9. Antonio Briola & Jeremy Turiel & Riccardo Marcaccioli & Alvaro Cauderan & Tomaso Aste, 2021. "Deep Reinforcement Learning for Active High Frequency Trading," Papers 2101.07107, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    10. Adamantios Ntakaris & Martin Magris & Juho Kanniainen & Moncef Gabbouj & Alexandros Iosifidis, 2018. "Benchmark dataset for mid‐price forecasting of limit order book data with machine learning methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(8), pages 852-866, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Konark Jain & Nick Firoozye & Jonathan Kochems & Philip Treleaven, 2024. "Limit Order Book Simulations: A Review," Papers 2402.17359, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    2. Peer Nagy & Jan-Peter Calliess & Stefan Zohren, 2023. "Asynchronous Deep Double Duelling Q-Learning for Trading-Signal Execution in Limit Order Book Markets," Papers 2301.08688, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    3. Jian Guo & Heung-Yeung Shum, 2024. "Large Investment Model," Papers 2408.10255, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    4. Zihao Zhang & Stefan Zohren, 2021. "Multi-Horizon Forecasting for Limit Order Books: Novel Deep Learning Approaches and Hardware Acceleration using Intelligent Processing Units," Papers 2105.10430, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    5. Ilia Zaznov & Julian Kunkel & Alfonso Dufour & Atta Badii, 2022. "Predicting Stock Price Changes Based on the Limit Order Book: A Survey," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-33, April.
    6. Antonio Briola & Silvia Bartolucci & Tomaso Aste, 2024. "HLOB -- Information Persistence and Structure in Limit Order Books," Papers 2405.18938, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.

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