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The Short-Term Predictability of Returns in Order Book Markets: a Deep Learning Perspective

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  • Lorenzo Lucchese
  • Mikko Pakkanen
  • Almut Veraart

Abstract

In this paper, we conduct a systematic large-scale analysis of order book-driven predictability in high-frequency returns by leveraging deep learning techniques. First, we introduce a new and robust representation of the order book, the volume representation. Next, we carry out an extensive empirical experiment to address various questions regarding predictability. We investigate if and how far ahead there is predictability, the importance of a robust data representation, the advantages of multi-horizon modeling, and the presence of universal trading patterns. We use model confidence sets, which provide a formalized statistical inference framework particularly well suited to answer these questions. Our findings show that at high frequencies predictability in mid-price returns is not just present, but ubiquitous. The performance of the deep learning models is strongly dependent on the choice of order book representation, and in this respect, the volume representation appears to have multiple practical advantages.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Lucchese & Mikko Pakkanen & Almut Veraart, 2022. "The Short-Term Predictability of Returns in Order Book Markets: a Deep Learning Perspective," Papers 2211.13777, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2211.13777
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nyblom, Jukka & Harvey, Andrew, 2000. "Tests Of Common Stochastic Trends," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 176-199, April.
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    3. Rama Cont & Arseniy Kukanov & Sasha Stoikov, 2013. "The Price Impact of Order Book Events," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 47-88, December.
    4. Peter R. Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2011. "The Model Confidence Set," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(2), pages 453-497, March.
    5. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Jianqing Fan & Lirong Xue & Yifeng Zhou, 2022. "How and When are High-Frequency Stock Returns Predictable?," NBER Working Papers 30366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Justin Sirignano & Rama Cont, 2019. "Universal features of price formation in financial markets: perspectives from deep learning," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 1449-1459, September.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    8. Zihao Zhang & Stefan Zohren, 2021. "Multi-Horizon Forecasting for Limit Order Books: Novel Deep Learning Approaches and Hardware Acceleration using Intelligent Processing Units," Papers 2105.10430, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    9. Adamantios Ntakaris & Martin Magris & Juho Kanniainen & Moncef Gabbouj & Alexandros Iosifidis, 2018. "Benchmark dataset for mid‐price forecasting of limit order book data with machine learning methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(8), pages 852-866, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alvaro Arroyo & Alvaro Cartea & Fernando Moreno-Pino & Stefan Zohren, 2023. "Deep Attentive Survival Analysis in Limit Order Books: Estimating Fill Probabilities with Convolutional-Transformers," Papers 2306.05479, arXiv.org.
    2. Matteo Prata & Giuseppe Masi & Leonardo Berti & Viviana Arrigoni & Andrea Coletta & Irene Cannistraci & Svitlana Vyetrenko & Paola Velardi & Novella Bartolini, 2023. "LOB-Based Deep Learning Models for Stock Price Trend Prediction: A Benchmark Study," Papers 2308.01915, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.

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