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International crop trade networks: The impact of shocks and cascades

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  • Rebekka Burkholz
  • Frank Schweitzer

Abstract

Analyzing available FAO data from 176 countries over 21 years, we observe an increase of complexity in the international trade of maize, rice, soy, and wheat. A larger number of countries play a role as producers or intermediaries, either for trade or food processing. In consequence, we find that the trade networks become more prone to failure cascades caused by exogenous shocks. In our model, countries compensate for demand deficits by imposing export restrictions. To capture these, we construct higher-order trade dependency networks for the different crops and years. These networks reveal hidden dependencies between countries and allow to discuss policy implications.

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  • Rebekka Burkholz & Frank Schweitzer, 2019. "International crop trade networks: The impact of shocks and cascades," Papers 1901.05872, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1901.05872
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    7. Wang, Xingxing & Li, Huajiao & Zhu, Depeng & Zhong, Weiqiong & Xing, Wanli & Wang, Anjian, 2021. "Research on global natural graphite trade risk countermeasures based on the maximum entropy principle," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
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    9. Xuxia Li & Huimin Wang & Ali Kharrazi & Brian D. Fath & Guijun Liu & Gang Liu & Yi Xiao & Xiaoying Lai, 2024. "A network analysis of external shocks on the dynamics and resilience of the global staple food trade," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 16(4), pages 845-865, August.
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    11. Moritz Laber & Peter Klimek & Martin Bruckner & Liuhuaying Yang & Stefan Thurner, 2022. "Shock propagation from the Russia-Ukraine conflict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability," Papers 2210.01846, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    12. Kangshun Zhao & Steven D. Gaines & Jorge García Molinos & Min Zhang & Jun Xu, 2024. "Effect of trade on global aquatic food consumption patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    13. Marco Grassia & Giuseppe Mangioni & Stefano Schiavo & Silvio Traverso, 2020. "(Unintended) Consequences of export restrictions on medical goods during the Covid-19 pandemic," Papers 2007.11941, arXiv.org.
    14. Campi, Mercedes & Dueñas, Marco & Fagiolo, Giorgio, 2020. "Specialization in food production, global food security and sustainability," Working papers 30, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    15. Linqing Liu & Weiran Wang & Xiaofei Yan & Mengyun Shen & Haizhi Chen, 2023. "The cascade influence of grain trade shocks on countries in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, December.
    16. Wang, Chao & Yang, Hua & Hu, Xiaoqian & He, Xijun & Liu, Junge & Liang, Chen & Lim, Ming K., 2024. "Deciphering iron ore trade dynamics: Supply disruption risk propagation in global networks through an improved cascading failure model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    17. E. Gutiérrez-Moya & B. Adenso-Díaz & S. Lozano, 2021. "Analysis and vulnerability of the international wheat trade network," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(1), pages 113-128, February.
    18. Wang, Chao & Huang, Xia & Hu, Xiaoqian & Zhao, Longfeng & Liu, Chao & Ghadimi, Pezhman, 2021. "Trade characteristics, competition patterns and COVID-19 related shock propagation in the global solar photovoltaic cell trade," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).

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