IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ssefpa/v13y2021i1d10.1007_s12571-020-01117-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis and vulnerability of the international wheat trade network

Author

Listed:
  • E. Gutiérrez-Moya

    (Universidad de Sevilla)

  • B. Adenso-Díaz

    (Universidad de Oviedo)

  • S. Lozano

    (Universidad de Sevilla)

Abstract

Wheat is one of the three basic cereals providing the necessary calorific intake for most of the world’s population. For this reason, its trade is critical to many countries in order to fulfil their internal demand and strategic stocks. In this paper, we use complex network analysis tools to study the international wheat trade network and its evolving characteristics for the period 2009–2013. To understand the vulnerability of each country’s dependence on the imports of this crop we have performed different analyses, simulating shocks of varying intensities for the main wheat producers, and observed the population affected by the production drop. As a result, we conclude that globally the network is slightly more resilient than four years previously, although at the same time some developing countries have slipped into a vulnerable situation. We have also analysed the effects of a global shock affecting all major producers, assessing its impact on every country. Some comments on the COVID-19 outbreak and the political decisions taken by governments following the pandemic declaration are included, observing that given their capital-intensive characteristics, no negative effects should currently be expected in the wheat market.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Gutiérrez-Moya & B. Adenso-Díaz & S. Lozano, 2021. "Analysis and vulnerability of the international wheat trade network," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(1), pages 113-128, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:13:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s12571-020-01117-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s12571-020-01117-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12571-020-01117-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12571-020-01117-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Esmeralda Ramalho & Joaquim Ramalho & Pedro Henriques, 2010. "Fractional regression models for second stage DEA efficiency analyses," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 239-255, December.
    2. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-793, May.
    3. Rebekka Burkholz & Frank Schweitzer, 2019. "International crop trade networks: The impact of shocks and cascades," Papers 1901.05872, arXiv.org.
    4. Marchand, Philippe & Carr, Joel A & Dell’Angelo, Jampel & Fader, Marianela & Gephart, Jessica A & Kummu, Matti & Magliocca, Nicholas R & Porkka, Miina & Puma, Michael J & Ratajczak, Zak & Rulli, Maria, 2016. "Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67783, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. C. Larochez-Dupraz & M. Huchet-Bourdon, 2016. "Agricultural support and vulnerability of food security to trade in developing countries," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(6), pages 1191-1206, December.
    6. Sartori, Martina & Schiavo, Stefano, 2015. "Connected we stand: A network perspective on trade and global food security," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 114-127.
    7. Aled W. Jones & Alexander Phillips, 2016. "Historic Food Production Shocks: Quantifying the Extremes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-10, April.
    8. Dong, Chao & Yin, Qiuju & Lane, Kevin J. & Yan, Zhijun & Shi, Tianyu & Liu, Yan & Bell, Michelle L., 2018. "Competition and transmission evolution of global food trade: A case study of wheat," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 998-1008.
    9. Marie-Cécile Dupas & José Halloy & Petros Chatzimpiros, 2019. "Time dynamics and invariant subnetwork structures in the world cereals trade network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-21, May.
    10. Papke, Leslie E & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1996. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 619-632, Nov.-Dec..
    11. Xiaohua Yu & Chang Liu & Hanjie Wang & Jan-Henning Feil, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on food prices in China: evidence of four major food products from Beijing, Shandong and Hubei Provinces," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(3), pages 445-458, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hao, Xiaoqing & An, Haizhong & Jiang, Meihui & Sun, Xiaoqi, 2024. "Supply shock propagation in the multi-layer network of global steel product chain: Additive effect of trade and production," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Trucmel Irina-Maria & Vintila Alexandra, 2023. "An Assessment of the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict on the European Cereal Exports Using Network Theory," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 46-62, July.
    3. Hao Xu & Niu Niu & Dongmei Li & Chengjie Wang, 2024. "A Dynamic Evolutionary Analysis of the Vulnerability of Global Food Trade Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-17, May.
    4. Gheorghe Cristian Popescu & Monica Popescu, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic and agriculture in Romania: effects on agricultural systems, compliance with restrictions and relations with authorities," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(2), pages 557-567, April.
    5. Jian Li & Ping Qing & Wuyang Hu & Minglai Li, 2022. "Contract farming, community effect, and farmer valuation of biofortified crop varieties in China: The case of high‐zinc wheat," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 1035-1055, May.
    6. Petra Hellegers, 2022. "Food security vulnerability due to trade dependencies on Russia and Ukraine," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(6), pages 1503-1510, December.
    7. Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali & Glauben, Thomas & Prehn, Sören & Götz, Linde & Svanidze, Miranda, 2023. "The Stability of Global Wheat Trade Network in the Post-Soviet Era: Trade Duration Approach," GEWISOLA 63rd Annual Conference, Goettingen, Germany, September 20-22, 2023 344241, GEWISOLA.
    8. Mihaela KRUZSLICIKA, 2022. "Reaction Of The Cereal Market To The Disruption Of Trade Flows In Romania," Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Institute of Agricultural Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 219-238.
    9. Qingru Sun & Meiyi Hou & Shuaiwei Shi & Liwei Cui & Zenglei Xi, 2022. "The Influence of Country Risks on the International Agricultural Trade Patterns Based on Network Analysis and Panel Data Method," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-18, March.
    10. Linqing Liu & Weiran Wang & Xiaofei Yan & Mengyun Shen & Haizhi Chen, 2023. "The cascade influence of grain trade shocks on countries in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, December.
    11. Ismail Bulent Gurbuz & Irfan Kadioglu, 2023. "Grain Production in Turkey and Its Environmental Drivers Using ARDL in the Age of Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, December.
    12. Katrine Soma & Wil Hennen & Siemen van Berkum, 2023. "Can Domestic Food Production Provide Future Urban Populations with Food and Nutrition Security?—Insights from Bangladesh, Kenya and Uganda," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-23, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Djokoto, Justice Gameli & Afari-Sefa, Victor, 2017. "Alternative functional forms for technology choice: Application to cocoa production technologies," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 110-120.
    2. Joaquim Ramalho & J. Silva, 2013. "Functional form issues in the regression analysis of financial leverage ratios," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 799-831, April.
    3. Akua Agyeiwaa-Afrane & Kofi A. A-O. Agyei-Henaku & Charlotte Badu-Prah & Francis Srofenyoh & Ferguson K. Gidiglo & James K. A. Amezi & Justice G. Djokoto, 2023. "Drivers of Ghanaians’ approval of the electronic levy," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-20, January.
    4. Djokoto, Justice G., 2015. "Technical efficiency of organic agriculture: a quantitative review," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, vol. 117(2), pages 1-11, August.
    5. Justice G. Djokoto & Korbla F. Gidiglo, 2016. "Technical Efficiency in Agribusiness: A Meta‐Analysis on Ghana," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 397-415, July.
    6. Alperovych, Yan & Hübner, Georges & Lobet, Fabrice, 2015. "How does governmental versus private venture capital backing affect a firm's efficiency? Evidence from Belgium," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 508-525.
    7. Helis Luik-Lindsaar & Ants-Hannes Viira & Haldja Viinalass & Tanel Kaart & Rando Värnik, 2018. "How do herd's genetic level and milk quality affect performance of dairy farms?," Czech Journal of Animal Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 63(10), pages 379-388.
    8. Justus Haucap & Johannes Muck, 2015. "What drives the relevance and reputation of economics journals? An update from a survey among economists," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 103(3), pages 849-877, June.
    9. Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2014. "Two-Part Models for Fractional Responses Defined as Ratios of Integers," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-22, September.
    10. Vânia G. Silva & Esmeralda A. Ramalho & Carlos R. Vieira, 2017. "The Use of Cheques in the European Union: A Cross-Country Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 581-602, July.
    11. Gegenfurtner, Dennis Andreas, 2021. "The causes of Original Sin: An empirical investigation of emerging market and developing countries," IPE Working Papers 174/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    12. Balz, Frank P. & Brinkmann, Florian & Kanbach, Dominik K., 2023. "The impact of independent and heterogeneous corporate venture capital on firm efficiency," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    13. Geraldo Souza & Eliane Gonçalves Gomes & Eliseu Roberto Alves, 2022. "Two-part fractional regression model with conditional FDH responses: an application to Brazilian agriculture," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 314(2), pages 393-409, July.
    14. Jeanne, Amar & Demaria, Samira & Rigot, Sandra, 2023. "What are the drivers of corporates' climate transparency? Evidence from the S&P 1200 index," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    15. Veronese da Silva, Aline & Costa, Marcelo Azevedo & Lopes-Ahn, Ana Lúcia, 2022. "Accounting multiple environmental variables in DEA energy transmission benchmarking modelling: The 2019 Brazilian case," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    16. Bright O. Asante & Renato A. Villano & Omphile Temoso, 2024. "Drivers of integrated crop–livestock farming system’s efficiency for smallholder farmers in the forest-savanna transition agro-ecological zone of Ghana," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(11), pages 29429-29451, November.
    17. Justice G. Djokoto & Ferguson K. Gidiglo & Francis Y. Srofenyoh & Kofi Aaron A-O. Agyei-Henaku & Akua A. Afrane Arthur & Charlotte Badu-Prah & John Fry, 2020. "Sectoral and spatio-temporal differentiation in technical efficiency: A meta-regression," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1773659-177, January.
    18. Gutiérrez, Ester & Lozano, Sebastián, 2016. "Efficiency assessment and output maximization possibilities of European small and medium sized airports," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 3-14.
    19. Eucabeth Majiwa & Boon L. Lee & Clevo Wilson & Hidemichi Fujii & Shunsuke Managi, 2018. "A network data envelopment analysis (NDEA) model of post-harvest handling: the case of Kenya’s rice processing industry," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(3), pages 631-648, June.
    20. Moritz Laber & Peter Klimek & Martin Bruckner & Liuhuaying Yang & Stefan Thurner, 2022. "Shock propagation from the Russia-Ukraine conflict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability," Papers 2210.01846, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:13:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s12571-020-01117-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.