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Lockdown fatigue: The diminishing effects of quarantines on the spread of COVID-19

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  • Patricio Goldstein

    (Harvard University)

  • Eduardo Levy Yeyati

    (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella/The Brookings Institution)

  • Luca Sartorio

    (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella)

Abstract

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) have been for most countries the key policy instrument utilized to contain the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, we conduct an empirical analysis of the impact of these policies on the virus’ transmission and death toll, for a panel of 152 countries, from the start of the pandemic through December 31, 2020. We find that lockdowns tend to significantly reduce the spread of the virus and the number of related deaths. We also show that this benign impact declines over time: after four months of strict lockdown, NPIs have a significantly weaker contribution in terms of their effect in reducing COVID-19 related fatalities. Part of the fading effect of quarantines could be attributed to an increasing non-compliance with mobility restrictions, as reflected in our estimates of a declining effect of lockdowns on measures of actual mobility. However, we additionally find that a reduction in de facto mobility also exhibits a diminishing effect on health outcomes, which suggests that lockdown fatigues may have introduce broader hurdles to containment policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricio Goldstein & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Luca Sartorio, 2021. "Lockdown fatigue: The diminishing effects of quarantines on the spread of COVID-19," Working Papers 35, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    • Handle: RePEc:aoz:wpaper:35
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Askitas, Nikos & Tatsiramos, Konstantinos & Verheyden, Bertrand, 2020. "Lockdown Strategies, Mobility Patterns and COVID-19," IZA Discussion Papers 13293, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Mr. Pragyan Deb & Davide Furceri & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Nour Tawk, 2020. "The Effect of Containment Measures on the COVID-19 Pandemic," IMF Working Papers 2020/159, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Luca Sartorio, 2020. "Take me out: De facto limits on strict lockdowns in developing countries," Department of Economics Working Papers wp_gob_2020_08, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    4. Eduardo Levi Yeyati & Luca Sartorio, 2020. "Take me out: De facto limits on strict lockdowns in developing countries," Working Papers 15, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
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    Cited by:

    1. Cepparulo, Brian & Jump, Robert Calvert, 2022. "The impact of Covid-19 restrictions on economic activity: evidence from the Italian regional system," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 37801, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    2. Herby, Jonas & Jonung, Lars & Hanke, Steve, 2022. "A Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on Covid-19 Mortality - II," MPRA Paper 113732, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Michael König & Adalbert Winkler, 2021. "The impact of government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP growth: Does strategy matter?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-16, November.
    4. Daniel Goller & Stefan C. Wolter, 2021. "“Too shocked to search” The COVID-19 shutdowns’ impact on the search for apprenticeships," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 157(1), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Bussolo, Maurizio & Sarma, Nayantara & Torre, Iván, 2023. "The links between COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and non-pharmaceutical interventions," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    6. Asli Demirgüç‐Kunt & Michael Lokshin & Iván Torre, 2021. "The sooner, the better: The economic impact of non‐pharmaceutical interventions during the early stage of the COVID‐19 pandemic," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(4), pages 551-573, October.
    7. Adolfo Rubinstein & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2022. "An Integrated Epidemiological and Economic Model of COVID-19 NPIs in Argentina," Working Papers 197, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    8. Moran Bodas & Bruria Adini & Eli Jaffe & Arielle Kaim & Kobi Peleg, 2022. "Lockdown Efficacy in Controlling the Spread of COVID-19 May Be Waning Due to Decline in Public Compliance, Especially among Unvaccinated Individuals: A Cross-Sectional Study in Israel," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-11, April.
    9. Jiang, Yi & Laranjo, Jade & Thomas, Milan, 2022. "COVID-19 Lockdown Policy and Heterogeneous Responses of Urban Mobility: Evidence from the Philippines," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 659, Asian Development Bank.
    10. Hongyi Chen & Peter Tillmann, 2022. "Lockdown Spillovers," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202215, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    11. Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Alessandro Borin, 2022. "A New Dataset for Local and National COVID-19-Related Restrictions in Italy," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(2), pages 435-470, July.
    12. Bussolo,Maurizio & Sarma,Nayantara & Torre,Ivan, 2022. "Indirect Effects of COVID-19 Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Vaccine Acceptance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10106, The World Bank.
    13. Faina Linkov & Christopher L. Cummings & David J. Dausey, 2024. "Official risk communication for COVID-19 and beyond: can we do a better job?," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 293-300, June.
    14. Loiacono, Luisa & Puglisi, Riccardo & Rizzo, Leonzio & Secomandi, Riccardo, 2022. "Pandemic knowledge and regulation effectiveness: Evidence from COVID-19," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 768-783.
    15. Thomas Hale & Noam Angrist & Andrew J Hale & Beatriz Kira & Saptarshi Majumdar & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Devi Sridhar & Robin N Thompson & Samuel Webster & Yuxi Zhang, 2021. "Government responses and COVID-19 deaths: Global evidence across multiple pandemic waves," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-14, July.
    16. Klose, Jens & Tillmann, Peter, 2022. "The Real and Financial Impact of COVID-19 Around the World," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264030, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Upasak Das & Rupayan Pal & Udayan Rathore & Bibhas Saha, 2023. "Rein in pandemic by pricing vaccine: Does social trust matter?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2023-008, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    18. Brian Cepparulo, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 restrictions on economic activity: Evidence from the Italian regional system," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2022 15, Stata Users Group.
    19. Yasuhiro Hara, "undated". "Dynamic Relationship between Information Dissemination by Local Governors and Mobility during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Discussion papers ron373, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    20. Lucas Rosso & Rodrigo Wagner, 2024. "How much does mobility matter for value-added tax revenue? Cross-country evidence around COVID-19," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(3), pages 841-855, June.
    21. Satoshi Tanaka, 2022. "Economic Impacts of SARS/MERS/COVID‐19 in Asian Countries," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 17(1), pages 41-61, January.
    22. Theodoros Evgeniou & Mathilde Fekom & Anton Ovchinnikov & Raphaël Porcher & Camille Pouchol & Nicolas Vayatis, 2023. "Pandemic lockdown, isolation, and exit policies based on machine learning predictions," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(5), pages 1307-1322, May.
    23. Jens Klose & Peter Tillmann, 2023. "The stock market and NO2 emissions effects of COVID‐19 around the world," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 556-594, July.

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