IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0259362.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP growth: Does strategy matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Michael König
  • Adalbert Winkler

Abstract

We analyze whether and to what extent strategies employed by governments to fight the COVID-19 pandemic made a difference for GDP growth developments in 2020. Based on the strength and speed with which governments imposed non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) when confronted with waves of infections we distinguish between countries pursuing an elimination strategy and countries following a suppression / mitigation strategy. For a sample of 44 countries fixed effect panel regression results show that NPI changes conducted by elimination strategy countries had a less severe effect on GDP growth than NPI changes in suppression / mitigation strategy countries: strategy matters. However, this result is sensitive to the countries identified as “elimination countries” and to the sample composition. Moreover, we find that exogenous country characteristics drive the choice of strategy. At the same time our results show that countries successfully applying the elimination strategy achieved better health outcomes than their peers without having to accept lower growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael König & Adalbert Winkler, 2021. "The impact of government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP growth: Does strategy matter?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-16, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0259362
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259362
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0259362
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0259362&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0259362?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    2. Dhaval Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Joseph J. Sabia, 2021. "When Do Shelter‐In‐Place Orders Fight Covid‐19 Best? Policy Heterogeneity Across States And Adoption Time," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 29-52, January.
    3. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Patricio Goldstein & Luca Sartorio, 2021. "Lockdown Fatigue: The Diminishing Effects of Quarantines on the Spread of COVID-19," Growth Lab Working Papers 170, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    4. James Broughel & Michael Kotrous, 2021. "The benefits of coronavirus suppression: A cost-benefit analysis of the response to the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-20, June.
    5. Collard, Fabrice & Hellwig, Christian & Assenza, Tiziana & Kankanamge, Sumudu & Dupaigne, Martial & Werquin, Nicolas & Feve, Patrick, 2020. "The Hammer and the Dance: Equilibrium and Optimal Policy during a Pandemic Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 14731, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Patricio Goldstein & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Luca Sartorio, 2021. "Lockdown fatigue: The diminishing effects of quarantines on the spread of COVID-19," Department of Economics Working Papers wp_gob_2021_01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    7. John Middleton & Henrique Lopes & Kai Michelson & John Reid, 2020. "Planning for a second wave pandemic of COVID-19 and planning for winter," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 65(9), pages 1525-1527, December.
    8. Megan Scudellari, 2020. "How Iceland hammered COVID with science," Nature, Nature, vol. 587(7835), pages 536-539, November.
    9. Michael Greenstone & Vishan Nigam, 2020. "Does Social Distancing Matter?," Working Papers 2020-26, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    10. Alexandra Fotiou & Andresa Lagerborg, 2021. "Smart Containment: Lessons from Countries with Past Experience," IMF Working Papers 2021/099, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Bodenstein, M. & Corsetti, G. & Guerrieri, L., 2021. "Economic and Epidemiological Effects of Mandated and Spontaneous Social Distancing," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2117, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paul, Jomon A. & Wang, Xinfang & Bagchi, Aniruddha, 2024. "Lives or livelihoods: A configurational perspective of COVID-19 policies," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Gagnon, Joseph E. & Kamin, Steven B. & Kearns, John, 2023. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global GDP growth," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dizioli, Allan & Pinheiro, Roberto, 2021. "Information and inequality in the time of a pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Asli Demirgüç‐Kunt & Michael Lokshin & Iván Torre, 2021. "The sooner, the better: The economic impact of non‐pharmaceutical interventions during the early stage of the COVID‐19 pandemic," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(4), pages 551-573, October.
    3. Herby, Jonas & Jonung, Lars & Hanke, Steve, 2022. "A Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on Covid-19 Mortality - II," MPRA Paper 113732, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Islamaj,Ergys & Le,Duong Trung & Mattoo,Aaditya, 2021. "Lives versus Livelihoods during the COVID-19 Pandemic : How Testing Softens the Trade-off," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9696, The World Bank.
    5. Etienne Farvaque & Hira Iqbal & Nicolas Ooghe, 2020. "Health politics? Determinants of US states’ reactions to COVID-19," Post-Print hal-03128875, HAL.
    6. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of COVID‐19: A mid‐term review," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 439-458, October.
    7. Adolfo Rubinstein & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2022. "An Integrated Epidemiological and Economic Model of COVID-19 NPIs in Argentina," Working Papers 197, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    8. Dirk Niepelt & Mart n Gonzalez-Eiras, 2020. "Optimally Controlling an Epidemic," Diskussionsschriften dp2019, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    9. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2022. "Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input–Output Approach [Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 358-409.
    10. Hausmann, Ricardo & Schetter, Ulrich, 2022. "Horrible trade-offs in a pandemic: Poverty, fiscal space, policy, and welfare," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    11. Chen, Simiao & Prettner, Klaus & Kuhn, Michael & Bloom, David E., 2021. "The economic burden of COVID-19 in the United States: Estimates and projections under an infection-based herd immunity approach," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    12. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    13. Loiacono, Luisa & Puglisi, Riccardo & Rizzo, Leonzio & Secomandi, Riccardo, 2022. "Pandemic knowledge and regulation effectiveness: Evidence from COVID-19," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 768-783.
    14. Carnehl, Christoph & Fukuda, Satoshi & Kos, Nenad, 2023. "Epidemics with behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    15. Matthew Spiegel & Heather Tookes, 2021. "Business Restrictions and COVID-19 Fatalities [The immediate effect of COVID-19 policies on social distancing behavior in the United States]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5266-5308.
    16. Kong, Edward & Prinz, Daniel, 2020. "Disentangling policy effects using proxy data: Which shutdown policies affected unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    17. Guillaume Chapelle, 2022. "The medium-term impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The case of the 1918 influenza in US cities," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(109), pages 43-81.
    18. Glenn Ellison, 2020. "Implications of Heterogeneous SIR Models for Analyses of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Dirk Krueger & Harald Uhlig & Taojun Xie, 2020. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic," PIER Working Paper Archive 20-015, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    20. Nicolò Gatti & Beatrice Retali, 2021. "Fighting the spread of Covid-19 : was the Swiss lockdown worth it?," IdEP Economic Papers 2101, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0259362. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.