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Price And Value Effects Of Pecan Crop Forecasts, 1971-1987

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  • Shafer, Carl E.

Abstract

Price equations incorporating USDA October crop forecasts and June pecan stocks provided reasonable formulations for pecan price explanation and forecasting. USDA crop forecasts exceeded final reported production in 12 of the 18 seasons from 1970 to 1987, probably resulting in slightly lower prices and crop values. Large crop forecast errors in both direction and level in 1986 and 1987 confounded the price determination process. Nevertheless, producer prices may have been lower absent the October crop forecasts, which somewhat reduce buyers' uncertainty regarding supply. Early crop estimates provided a better explanation of price behavior than postseason revised production data.

Suggested Citation

  • Shafer, Carl E., 1989. "Price And Value Effects Of Pecan Crop Forecasts, 1971-1987," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 1-7, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:sojoae:30188
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.30188
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nikolaos T. Milonas, 1987. "The effects of USDA crop announcements on commodity prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(5), pages 571-589, October.
    2. Fox, Karl A., 1953. "The Analysis of Demand for Farm Products," Technical Bulletins 156646, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sande, Doris N. & Mullen, Jeffrey D. & Nzaku, Kilungu, 2009. "Amenity benefits and public policy: An application to the Georgia Pecan Industry," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46851, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. Cheng, Guo & Dharmasena, Senarath & Capps, Oral, Jr., 2017. "The Taste for Variety: Demand Analysis for Nut Products in the United States," Reports 285248, Texas A&M University, Agribusiness, Food, and Consumer Economics Research Center.
    3. Okunade, Albert A. & Cochran, Mark J., 1991. "Functional Forms and Farm-Level Demand for Pecans by Variety," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 95-102, December.

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    Demand and Price Analysis;

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