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Arbitrage Conditions, Interest Rates, and Commodity Prices

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  • Kitchen, John
  • Denbaly, Mark

Abstract

This research examines the arbitrage condition between Financial markets and commodity markets According to the standard arbitrage condition, for risk-neutral investors to be indifferent between holding securities or commodities, the expected commodity price appreciation, adjusted for physical storage costs, must equal the rate of return on financial assets For agritcultural commodities, however, the convenience yield drives a wedge between the interest return and the commodity price spread Empirical results support this position, but also provide evidence that the commodity price spread properly incorporates interest costs

Suggested Citation

  • Kitchen, John & Denbaly, Mark, 1987. "Arbitrage Conditions, Interest Rates, and Commodity Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 39(2), pages 1-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersja:136728
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.136728
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Husted, Steven & Kitchen, John, 1985. "Some Evidence on the International Transmission of U.S. Money Supply Announcement Effects," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 456-466, November.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1984. "Commodity Prices and Money: Lessons from International Finance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(5), pages 560-566.
    3. Cumby, Robert E. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "The international linkage of real interest rates: The European-US connection," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 5-23, March.
    4. Kitchen, John & Denbaly, Mark, 1987. "Commodity Prices, Money Surprises, and Fed Credibility: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(2), pages 246-251, May.
    5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    6. Bilson, John F O, 1985. "Macroeconomic Stability and Flexible Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 62-67, May.
    7. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-338, April.
    8. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1984. "Are Real Interest Rates Equal across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1345-1357, December.
    9. Mussa, Michael, 1982. "A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 74-104, February.
    10. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1985. "Commodity Prices, Money Surprises and Fed Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 425-438, November.
    11. Anne E. Peck, 1985. "Futures Markets: Their Economic Role," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 968570, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hector O. Zapata & T. Randall Fortenbery, 1996. "Stochastic Interest Rates and Price Discovery in Selected Commodity Markets," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 643-654.
    2. Kitchen, John, 1988. "Agricultural Futures Prices And New Information," Staff Reports 278066, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Sundell, Paul A., 1990. "An Examination of Federal Reserve Behavior: An Applied Reaction Function Approach," Staff Reports 278322, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

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