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Futures market efficiency in the soybean complex

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  • Rausser, Gordon C.
  • Carter, Colin A.

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  • Rausser, Gordon C. & Carter, Colin A., 1982. "Futures market efficiency in the soybean complex," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt7d48x9qc, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt7d48x9qc
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    1. Leuthold, Raymond M, 1972. "Random Walk and Price Trends: The Live Cattle Futures Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 879-889, September.
    2. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    3. Richard E. Just & Gordon C. Rausser, 1981. "Commodity Price Forecasting with Large-Scale Econometric Models and the Futures Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(2), pages 197-208.
    4. Anne E. Peck, 1976. "Futures Markets, Supply Response, and Price Stability," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 90(3), pages 407-423.
    5. Ronald I. McKinnon, 1967. "Futures Markets, Buffer Stocks, and Income Stability for Primary Producers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(6), pages 844-844.
    6. Larry Martin & Philip Garcia, 1981. "The Price-Forecasting Performance of Futures Markets for Live Cattle and Hogs: A Disaggregated Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(2), pages 209-215.
    7. Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974. "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May.
    8. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    9. Holthausen, Duncan M, 1979. "Hedging and the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 989-995, December.
    10. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February.
    11. Larson, Arnold B., 1960. "Measurement of a Random Process in Futures Prices," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 1(3), pages 1-12.
    12. William G. Tomek & Roger W. Gray, 1970. "Temporal Relationships Among Prices on Commodity Futures Markets: Their Allocative and Stabilizing Roles," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 372-380.
    13. Cargill, Thomas F & Rausser, Gordon C, 1975. "Temporal Price Behavior in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1043-1053, September.
    14. Mann, Jitendar S. & Heifner, Richard G., 1976. "The Distribution of Shortrun Commodity Price Movements," Technical Bulletins 158107, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    15. Raymond M. Leuthold & Peter A. Hartmann, 1979. "A Semi-Strong Form Evaluation of the Efficiency of the Hog Futures Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(3), pages 482-489.
    16. Stevenson, Richard A & Bear, Robert M, 1970. "Commodity Futures: Trends or Random Walks?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(1), pages 65-81, March.
    17. Cox, Charles C, 1976. "Futures Trading and Market Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1215-1237, December.
    18. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    19. Larson, Arnold B., 1960. "Measurement of a Random Process in Futures Prices," WAEA/ WFEA Conference Archive (1929-1995) 323441, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    20. Tetteh A. Kofi, 1973. "A Framework for Comparing the Efficiency of Futures Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 55(4_Part_1), pages 584-594.
    21. Brinegar, Claude S., 1970. "A Statistical Analysis of Speculative Price Behavior," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 9(Supplemen), pages 1-72.
    22. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1979. "Futures markets, private storage, and price stabilization," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 301-327, December.
    23. Gershon Feder & Richard E. Just & Andrew Schmitz, 1980. "Futures Markets and the Theory of the Firm under Price Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 94(2), pages 317-328.
    24. Smidt, Seymour, 1965. "A Test of the Serial Independence Price Changes in Soybean Futures," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 1-20.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Barry A. Goss & S. Gulay Avsar, 2013. "Simultaneity, Forecasting and Profits in London Copper Futures," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 79-96, June.
    2. Barry A. Goss & S. Gulay Avsar & Siang‐Choo Chan, 1992. "Rational Expectations and Price Determination in the US Oats Market," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 68(S1), pages 16-26, December.
    3. Buccola, Steven T., 1989. "Pricing Efficiency In Agricultural Markets: Issues, Methods, And Results," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, July.
    4. Bailey, DeeVon & Brorsen, B. Wade & Richardson, James W., 1984. "Dynamic Stochastic Simulation Of Daily Cash And Futures Cotton Prices," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 16(2), pages 1-8, December.
    5. Skold, Karl Durwood, 1989. "The integration of alternative information systems: an application to the Hogs and Pigs report," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010239, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Matthew T. Holt & Andrew M. McKenzie, 2003. "Quasi-rational and ex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 407-426.
    7. Elfakhani, Said & Wionzek, Ritchie J., 1997. "Intermarket spread opportunities between Canadian and American agricultural futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 361-377.
    8. J. Frank & P. Garcia, 2009. "Time-varying risk premium: further evidence in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 715-725.
    9. Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2002. "Combining time-varying and dynamic multi-period optimal hedging models," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 29(4), pages 471-500, December.
    10. Gordon, J. Douglas, 1985. "The Distribution of Daily Changes in Commodity Futures Prices," Technical Bulletins 156817, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    11. Liu, Shi-Miin & Thompson, Sarahelen R., 1990. "The Price Adjustment Process And Efficiency Of Grain Futures Markets Implied By Return Series Of Various Time Intervals," 1990 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Vancouver, Canada 270981, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    12. Kitchen, John, 1988. "Agricultural Futures Prices And New Information," Staff Reports 278066, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    13. Nordier, Jean-Pierre, 2021. "Identifying possible misspecification in South African soybean oil future contracts," Research Theses 334756, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    14. Tomek, William G., 1996. "Commodity Futures Prices As Forecasts," Working Papers 127901, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    15. Rausser, Gordon C & Walraven, Nicholas A, 1990. "Linkages among Commodity Futures Markets and Dynamic Welfare Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(4), pages 631-639, November.
    16. Garcia, Philip & Hudson, Michael A. & Waller, Mark L., 1988. "The Pricing Efficiency Of Agricultural Futures Markets: An Analysis Of Previous Research Results," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12, July.
    17. Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2002. "Crack spread hedging: accounting for time-varying volatility spillovers in the energy futures markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 269-289.
    18. Yang, Yao & Karali, Berna, 2022. "How far is too far for volatility transmission?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    19. Rausser, Gordon C. & Walraven, Nicholas, 1988. "Dynamic welfare analysis and commodity futures markets overshooting," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt7xc0k7s1, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    20. Haigh, Michael S. & Holt, Matthew T., 1999. "Volatility Spillovers Between Foreign Exchange, Commodity And Freight Futures Prices: Implications For Hedging Strategies," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21625, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    21. Blank, Steven C., 1989. "Research On Futures Markets: Issues, Approaches, And Empirical Findings," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, July.
    22. Funk, Samuel M. & Zook, James E. & Featherstone, Allen M., 2008. "Chicago Board of Trade Ethanol Contract Efficiency," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6811, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    23. Bailey, DeeVon & Brorsen, B. Wade, 1985. "Dynamics Of Regional Fed Cattle Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-8, July.
    24. Elfakhani, Said & Visiting Professor & Wionzek, Ritchie J. & Chaudhury, Mohammed, 1999. "Thin trading and mispricing profit opportunities in the Canadian commodity futures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 37-58.
    25. Dote, Grace, 1982. "Economic Research Of Interest To Agriculture, 1979-1981," Economic Research of Interest to Agriculture 7291, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

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